Warming Trend to Begin Thursday…..Instability aloft will bring the Slight Chance of TSRWs Thursday & Friday PM….Then a Fair Very Warm Weekend Ahead………Cooler….Windy Weather to arrive by Middle of Next Week…..
Tuesday June 3, 2014
Posted at 9:05 am by Howard
Friday AM Update:
Looks like Mammoth is ready for a couple of 80 degrees days both Sunday and Monday. However the cool down advertised is being pushed back a few days to the latter part of the week.
Here is your high temperature forecast for Mammoth the next several days.
Friday Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thurs (Friday through Sunday)
76 78 80 80 75 75 72 60s
It will be Quite Breezy beginning Wednesday afternoon
Thursday AM Update:
It appears that certain locations in elevation for Eastern CA will be pushing near record high’s by Sunday, and especially Inyo County into Monday as well before the aforementioned cool down begins next week…. It would not surprise the Dweebs if we hit 80F on Sunday…..
Wednesday AM Update:
RE: Longer Range Outlooks
In yesterdays discussion…the Dweebs indicated that it was fairly certain that the MJO was headed to Phase 4. (Maritime Continent). That was recently corroborated by the CPC in their latest discussion.
From the CPC:
“Dynamical model MJO forecasts differ on the forecast of the MJO in WH-RMM phase space, although agreement has increased slightly during the past 48 hours. The GFS ensemble depicts a weak signal over the Indian Ocean with a stronger signal emerging in Phase 3 during Week-2. The ECMWF and UKMET models indicate an emergence in Phase 4 with propagation toward Phase 5. The latter solutions are favored as much of the signal is likely related to faster moving Kelvin Waves.
Sensibly, the point here is most related to what temperatures will do in the Sierra high country over the next few weeks. The location of the tropical convection will most likely shift to the Maritime Continent (phase 4) later next week and then shift over the western pacific (Phase 5) where the high frequency base state of the Kelvin wave moves the convection to phase 5…..weakening, possibly over phase space 6. Beyond the next 5 days of anomalous warm weather, W/ Highs in the mid to upper 70s in Mammoth)…..The eastward Shift of convection increases the amplitude of the westerlies and allows a series of colder short waves into the pacific northwest then great basin, during the latter part of week 2 and possibly into week 3. The main effect to Mammoth Lakes will be on our temperatures and winds here in Mammoth. It looks to be quite breezy, then cooler during the 2nd half of next week….and possibly into the following week as well; based upon the MJO temperature and 500hpa composites. Our normal highs are in the upper 60s now for Mammoth Lakes.
We will be in the mid 70s the next 5 days. I expect cooling well down into the 60s prior to the end of next week and, “a possibly freeze” at some point before fathers day.
This outlook is based upon the MJO temperature Composite’s for June over California, The chilly Trof over the northern great basin showed by the ECMWF is easily correlated for week 2.
The CPC does indicate that the MJO or in this case, tropical convection more associated with the high frequency Kelvin Wave will play the part of normal to cooler than normal temperatures for weeks 2 and possibly 3.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………
Tuesday AM UPDATE:
Just a note to mention that if you missed it yesterday…Mammoth had a brief shower in the Mid-Afternoon. The interesting part about it was that during the shower, the clouds were gone. Obviously they had been blown ENE before the rain hit the ground. The weak upper jet that enhanced instability yesterday is not present today. However it will be back Thursday with even warmer temps. This sets up a better chance of some showers or thunderstorms for the high country Thursday PM as the air mass will be more unstable because of the warmer surface. All in all, it is not going to be a big deal. The most sensible part of the pattern the rest of this week is that is it going to warm up over the next few days leading to a spectacular warm weekend (75F Saturday and Sunday). Highs in Bishop may hit 100 by Sunday.
Outlook: Here comes the fun part. I love when there is a connection between the MJO and the weather over the Sierra. Actually, it will be a synoptic scale change to cooler weather over the far west. There will be wind, clouds and the potential for Freezing temps in Mammoth during the 2nd half of next week.
What happening? The convective phase of the MJO is forecasted to move into the Maritime Continent: SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif (Yes I am buying the ECMWF MJO chart because the GFS has the Trof in the guidance as well, but not in the MJO chart)
The Odds of at least normal to below normal temperatures are pretty good! See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/MJO-T-composites0.shtml
The 15 Day guidance has a pretty good Trof (Not Surprisingly) digging in over the far west after the middle of next week. This is especially evident in the ECMWF week 2 model.