Monday the Warmest Day…Then Scattered Thunderstorms to Rumble in Response to a small closed low arriving just at the right time Tuesday PM…….The MJO Maybe Ready to Kick Start El Nino Soon!!
Monday June 9, 2014
Posted at 5:50 am by Howard
Wind developed overnight in the higher elevations with the top of Mammoth MT gusting to 55MPH at 7:00AM. This winds will get pulled down into Town later this AM as the daytime heating progresses. However, the winds forecasted for town will not gust much more then 40MPH. The very breezy weather will continue through Friday night.
Note….This is not a forecast…just something to watch for
What kind of weather would we expect to see this summer if a strong El Nino was on the horizon for the next Fall- Winter.
Some signs to watch for:
1. Perpetual weak trofing along the west coast and a displaced continental high South-East to eastward from the four corner states. A weaker Monsoon Season for the Desert SW. Not as hot a summer. IE Hot episodes to be either shorter lived or not at all. A much breezier Summer with much less thunderstorms. The Spring Breezy season continuing into the first week of July with a bit cooler than normal temps.
Wednesday PM UPDATE:
An annoying windy period will begin later tonight and last through Friday night. Cooler temps on the way. This nasty trof will be very dry in the high country, increasing fire concerns. Winds up to 45MPH are possible in town at times….
For you locals, the pine pollen is on the increase and so you might want to think about closing your windows to keep the pollen out the next 60 hours….
It looks to be a busy afternoon for Fire Crews as scattered dry thunderstorms are expected develop within the deformation zone associated with a weak upper level low pressure feature coming into Santa Barbara today. This will create weak divergence aloft over the Sierra. Although our air-mass is currently dry in the midlevel’s, there will be plenty of moist parcels of air that will rise from the surface into an increasingly unstable air mass, by mid afternoon. There is expected to be some residual moisture around Wednesday. However, not much of a lifting mechanism as there will be today. So expect just isolated air mass TSRWS Wednesday.
By Thursday, a stronger “open trof” moves into the pacific NW with its dry cold front flushing through the sierra during the day. A clash of air masses with gradient driven winds will develop ahead of the front combined with a surface gradient due to the difference’s between the existing ambient heat of our current air mass and the WX front approaching. Thus it looks windy Thursday here in Mammoth, especially during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are in the forefront, “if”any new fires are created by todays anticipated lightning strikes.
Post frontal Thursday, it will grow cooler with about 10 degrees of cooling between yesterdays high of 79 and Friday’s 69 degree high. Night times low will cool to the 30s again over the weekend.
During the first half of next week, all the models bring warming back into Eastern CA. However, there is a big contrast on what happens the 2nd half of next week. You see the ECMWF Control sets up a classic Summertime pattern with warming over the west followed by a strong continental high setting up over the Great Basin. Furthermore, the upper height anomaly sets up later over the four corners area in a pattern, suggesting the possibility of an incipient monsoon developing by the end of week 2.
As a comparison, the GFS control over the same week 2 period, has another significant trof effecting our area keeping temperatures seasonal, with periods of wind. These two models during the latter week two period are about as different as they can be!!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………..:-)
After a beautiful weekend…..The Dweebs see some Thunderstorms in our future. Although the Thunderstorm action has been pretty isolated the past few days, that is getting ready to change as warm ambient temperatures react with a dynamic Vort max coming in Tuesday. This will have the effect of strongly destabilizing the atmosphere Tuesday afternoon and into the evening hours.
The rest of the week will be a bit cooler. The forecast models have been back peddling on the colder scenario for sometime now, for next weekend. It now looks like it will be cooler and breezy Thursday into Friday, but no major Cool down with this system. Temperatures will cool to the low 70s in Mammoth. These are more seasonal temperatures then anything else. However, there looks to be a few others low pressure systems before the end of the month that we will have to keep an eye on as far as cooling and wind.
El Nino>>>> Moderate…Strong or Super!
Here is the process. Atmospheric Teleconnections>>>>>>MJO>>>>>>Westerly Wind Bursts>>>>>>Kelvin Waves>>>>>>>EL Nino
For the past five to six European weekly forecasts, the model has been becoming more and more aggressive with a developing MJO signature to push across the central-eastern Pacific later in June through early July. In response, we should expect another period of westerly wind bursts over the western-central part of the Basin. See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
For a more detailed report, check out this timely report from Dr. Michael Ventrice. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2694