Back peddeling going on now with the idea of above normal temps in early July……Gulf of AK Upper Low Anomalously strong will feed a series of short wave trofs to the west coast….bringing more wind to the high country later in the upcoming week and beyond. There is even the possibility of showers related to FROPA moving in from the pacific Thursday……Stay tuned…….
Sunday June 22, 2014
Posted at 7:50 am by Howard
What happening??? Week 1 and 2 models all have a pretty good storm hitting the west coast later this upcoming week and another the following week. The results will be some significant periods of wind for the high country beginning this Wednesday, a chance of showers and cooling for Thursday.
In an earlier discussion a few weeks ago, the Dweebs highlighted what an ENSO Forced Summer might look like:
1. Anomalous Trofing along the west coast.
2. The tendency for the Summer to be a both Cooler and Windier than normal with warmest weather occurring later in July.
3. The Summer Continental High position displaced further east of climatology.
4. Less Thunderstorm activity.
So the effect of ENSO may be beginning to show up in the models now.
With that all said….it does appear from the current standpoint of view that unless a major change occurs, this El Niño is not going to be anything close to a Super Nino. In fact, there has been cooling in the Nino region 4 and 3,4 area for the past several weeks. What were seeing is a wimpy Nino! Will there be another strong Kelvin Wave that will rejuvenate the Nino Basin with warmth? No one really knows thus far. Nevertheless…..there may be some air-sea coupling resembling what we might expect here along the west coast with an El Nino Summer……IE Breezy….cooler then normal and less heat related TSRWs…. with the Mono County Convergence zone displaced further east.
Winter and ENSO:
With a weakening of the +SSTA’s in NINO 3.4 and 4 region’s, Most scientist’s will not be going out on a limb on next winter until they see what is happening next Fall. With that said, we can still get a good winter even in a weak to moderate El Nino here in California.. However….. it tends to favor the Southern Part of the state even more. There tends to be a lot of split flow waves and systems headed down the coast.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)