Models Yo-Yo back to a warmer weekend….still no sustained southerly or southeast flow in our outlook….So any heat related Thunderstorms will be isolated next week…….
Tuesday June 24, 2014
Posted at 9:39 am by Howard
Surprise! Badly needed rains are falling in Mammoth Lakes. The short wave trof decided to come in further south than the models had predicted. The trof picked up on a subtropical plume located well North and west of Hawaii early this week. The plume was expected to only effect Northern Ca northward where rains have dumped over a half an inch already in the Northern Sierra. Looking at the ECMWF Model….This may be the beginnings of an EL Nino Summer where by the summer will be affected by an active upper jet during the Summer season. What we need to watch for is alternating periods of heat then cool downs with wind. This late June trof may-be just one of several summer trofs that will lead up into a very exciting winter!
The weather still looks very warm over the weekend and into early next week with highs in the 80s in Mammoth and into the 100s for the Owens Valley….
Stay tuned…..The Dweebs see more Trofs rolling in This July……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)
This will be brief…..Wind advisories this afternoon for area boaters…Be off the larger lakes by 12:00PM….Wind gusts 40mph to as strong as 50mph in the windier areas are expected this PM
Red Flag Warning same time period for critical fire conditions.
High today 74 tomorrow 64. It will continue to be breezy Thursday but the humidly will recover…
Brief statement about the confusing relationship of the MJO to the Kelvin Wave,
Again it is Atmospheric teleconnections>>>>MJO>>>>Kelvin Wave. The Kelvin wave does not initiate the MJO according to Jon Gottschalck of the CPC.
Longer Range: New 12z GFS 6/25/2014 has 1st strong indication of SE flow developing Monday PM into that week. (Thunderstorm Pattern)
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)
With a trof headed for the coast Wednesday, it is now noted that its track has decidedly taken a position further to the north, along with best moisture to the north as well. So the idea of any showers this far south is no longer in the forecast. However, with that said, the winds will still be an issue, as strong thermally induced winds will develop Wednesday with added support into the night and into the early morning hours Thursday by the upper jet. Thus….This will be a protracted wind event for the high country that will begin during the late morning Wednesday and continue through the night Wednesday night and even into Thursday. By Thursday, it will be cooler with our air mass containing more humidity. From a fire danger point of view, the most critical conditions will be from early Wednesday afternoon through about Midnight. Thursday will be cooler by about 10 degrees so daytime highs will be in the upper 60s.
For what ever reasons….the models have flipped back to a warmer weekend; an idea of earlier model runs. Temperatures will surge some 15+ over Thursdays highs by Sunday. That will bring Mammoth its first uncomfortable weekend for locals not used to mid 80 degree heat by Sunday and into Monday.
The heat really builds over the west the first several days of July. It sill looks apparent that the AZ Monsoon will be delayed into Eastern California. Although the longer range initiates SE flow into AZ around the 4th of July…..it has difficulty pushing it WNW into Nevada, let alone Eastern CA. So it appears that in the meantime, any thunderstorms will be isolated, and with enough periodic SW flow, our local air mass looks pretty stable for the time being…. When that changes…the Dweebs will let you know….
Lots of folks like to draw the conclusion that the winters of the Australian Alps and the Sierra are linked. I personally do not believe that is true. However, lets start the rumor mill going just for fun, with the notion that there may be some truth to that.
Check out the story at the following link…. http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-ideas/best-snowfalls-in-a-decade-forecast-for-eastern-australia-strap-yourselves-in-for-the-megablizzard/story-e6frfqdr-1226963855196
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)