Dry Weather is expected over the Eastern Sierra through Monday with a Warming trend through Sunday……Monsoonal Flow Resumes Tuesday with an increasing chance of Rainfall for Mono County…
Friday July 11, 2014
Posted at 9:45 am by Howard
After a couple nice days of rainfall the weather will be dry here in the high country with a strong warming trend Through Sunday. High Temps by Sunday and Monday will be in the upper range of the mid 80s with lows in the low 50s. South-East flow and dynamics will return Tuesday through Thursday next week along with Rain Showers and Thunderstorms.
Enjoy the Wine Fest…..Later today and Saturday…..Two of the best wineries will be attending from the Howell Mt appellation in the Napa area. “Saunter” and “Outpost Winery’s” are some of the best from that region!
This mornings guidance along with the water vapor loop shows a weak trof of low pressure off the CA Coast at 135W, ushering in a drier SW flow into California. With the drier air, comes a more stable air mass, more sunshine, rain free conditions and slightly warmer temps. The upper low will not come inland, but instead, lift north along the same longitude in response to increasing heights from the east over the weekend. The result will be that the continental high over our countries mid section will retrograde west over Nevada and California by Sunday. This westward shift will challenge the warmest temps so far this Summer here in the Eastern Sierra Sunday, and again Monday.
Next week the guidance suggests that the upper high will begin to weaken and a SE flow develops again out of the Desert Southwest. A Rich Moisture source is currently in place over NW Mexico. This in time will be drawn north into AZ then NW into Eastern CA Tuesday through Thursday. This South East flow is the Monsoon, (seasonal wind) which will be accompanied by a more dynamic, unstable air mass….And the possibility of additional rainfall for the Sierra.
If you remember, the Climate Forecast Systems forecast for the eastern sierra for July posted here in the Dweeb Report had indicated that precipitation for July would be in excess of 200% of Normal. Normal is probably about an inch of Rain for the month of July here in Mammoth. Yesterdays Rainfall tallied between .2 and .4 inches over the Town of Mammoth Lakes.
Another robust kelvin wave is located over the Maritime Continent and is progressing east along the Equator. In the front of this system is a down welling component that showing up, evidenced by the warming of the subsurface ocean waters between 160E and the Dateline. In my opinion, this looks like it will effectively re-energize the Nino Basin later this Summer and Fall. You can track this Kelvin Wave at the following link and watch its progress this Summer and Fall.
The latest advisory from the CPC indicates that there is a 70% chance of a Weak to Moderate by the end of the Summer. Furthermore, those odds increase to 80% by Fall. The Dweebs believe that a Weak to Moderate El Nino will have an affect on California’s weather pattern next winter and Spring.
The ONI index is used in the following study for determining El Ninos effect upon precipitation over California. This research has been a work in progress by Meteorologist Jan Null a current CCIM and past lead weather service forecaster in the Bay Area.
You can review his work here at this link: http://ggweather.com/enso2014/
Also since there is likely going to be a lot of rumors flying around the next 6 month about El NINO, I though it would be appropriate to include Jan Nulls List of Myths, some of which you may actually hear from someone this Summer or fall…
Have a great weekend