Forecast Models continue to Back Peddel on moving out residual moisture and so moisture to be recycled on a daily bases untill best SW flow Develops By Middle of Next Week……
Saturday July 19, 2014
Posted at 7:13 am by Howard
Sunday AM Update
A line of thunderstorms have developed ahead of a vort center moving up the Owens Valley. The storms are likely to move into Mammoth Lakes shortly with rain, thunder, lighting and possible small hail. The impulse will shift north later in the morning through Mono County away from Mammoth after 10:15 am.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening then clearing later this evening. It will be partly cloudy Monday PM with only a slight chance of rain over Mono County then dry with a warming trend by mid week through Saturday. Next weekend will be very warm again with high in Mammoth in the 80s…
This has become one of the most persistent Thunderstorm patterns in years for the Eastern Sierra. After the initial push of south easterlies…..Mid and Upper level winds have been very light the past several days. Recent models runs continue to delay mid level drying, now until next Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Thunderstorms will now likely develop here and there, seemingly at random the next 3 to 4 days…..
Latest Guidance shows light SE flow continuing to move out of AZ into SE CA, then up into most of California throughout the weekend. This will bring a reinforcing shot of mid level moisture to our region this afternoon. To add to the mix, there is a rather broad area of weak low pressure centered west of San Diego. It is being formed within a Coll, “in-between” the upper high to the East and another area of high pressure aloft to the WNW. This area of low pressure is forecasted to push a mid level wave into Southern California later this afternoon then northward up through Mono County tonight. It is possible that this will provide the lift for nocturnal storms over night throughout Mono County tonight. Campers should be aware of an elevated threat of rain tonight in the Sierra, after sunset.
Sunday looks like another day of thunder over Mono County, however, once again the models are trying to deepen an upper Trof from BC toward Oregon. Although the timing is up for question, the main idea is for this Trof to couple with the subtropical low to the SW of us and develop an upper Jet over Southern CA Sunday night which lifts north through our region by Monday Night. This should eventually put an end to our thunderstorm pattern with drying ushered in by the upper jet. Of course the upper jet may briefly create some lift itself through the process for Mono County Monday for a continuing threat of thunder that afternoon before it shifts north out of our area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Another heat wave looks likely to develop later next week as the Subtropical Continental high expands west again into California later Thursday into that next weekend. It will heat up later next week with 80s returning here in the high country and low 100s for the Bishop area. Then….SE flow and dynamic’s (Monsoon) returns over that weekend with more Mono County thunderstorms….As the process begins all over again!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)