Archive for July, 2014

Very Moist Unstable Air-Mass to remain over our area through Thursday with the likelyhood of heavy rain showers high accordingly……A slow drying process to begin Friday with Areal Coverage of Thunderstorms decreasing through Saturday then fair and dry Sunday and next week…..

With Dew Point in the low 50s….PWATs over an inch and favorable Kinematics, there is a high likelihood of Thunderstorms today and Thursday. Locally heavy rain is possible as well today and Thursday from Southern Mono County northward through Central Mono County and eastward to Esmeralda County. The National Weather service has issued a flash flood Watch for Mono County and the Sierra both today and Tomorrow From 12:00 noon to 9:00 pm. Campers, and outdoor sports enthusiast’s should keep in touch with local radio stations which will put out a warning when the NWS relays it to them. Low lying Stream’s, Arroyo’s and rock slides on Mountain Pass are particularly susceptible to heavy rain. Travelers should keep in touch with the National Weather Service via local radio stations in case Flash Flooding is observed and a warning is issued.

WX Discussion:

Deep Monsoon moisture will remain over Mono County through Thursday with the beginnings of a drying trend Friday. Storms over the next few days are capable of producing heavy rainfall. A strong Trof of low pressure will approach the Pacific Northwest Thursday into Friday. This is set up a drier flow from the Pacific, out of the SSW which eventually flushes all of the Monsoon moisture from our region by week’s end. However, for the immediate Mammoth Area we should be thunderstorms free by Saturday at the latest. Beginning Sunday and especially early next week will be quite breezy and dry. Highs temps will continue in the 70s with over night lows dropping into the 30s in some areas, because of the dryer air. The influence of this upper trof is likely to keep our area very dry through next weekend with Monsoon Moisture not making a real comeback until the end of the month.

 

ENSO UPDATE:

Several smaller Kelvin Waves are moving east near the equator. Subsurface warming is taking place again from the eastern portions of the “western pacific” to the central pacific. Eventually, this warm subsurface water will begin to show up in the SSTA’s of the NINO 4 an 3.4 indices later this month with indications of further warming.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………………………:-)

 

 

Thunderstorms to highlight the Forecast along with areas of locally heavy showers through Wednesday…Drying to begin Thursday with a fair, warm, dry weekend expected…..

Southeast flow and abundant moisture along with light winds will keep the thunderstorm threat high over Mono County both today and Wednesday. A vort center over Southern NV is stretched east west and will shift northwest into Southern Mono County later today and remain stationary through Wednesday Afternoon. Moisture and dynamics will increase through Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible Today, Tonight and Wednesday.   Locally heavy rain is possible as well. The National Weather Service has a flash flood watch out for Mono County Wednesday PM……However, late this afternoon and evening look to be quite active as well, especially for Southern Mono County.

Drying begins to work into our area Thursday with the threat of heavy rain beginning to diminish. Drier weather for Mammoth is expected Friday with most storms to our north and east with a fair dry weekend expected. Highs will be near 80 today then cooling to the mid 70s by Saturday as a trof of low pressure deepens south into the weekend. Expect moderate zephyr winds by Friday.    More hot weather is expected to redevelop next week.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

 

Dry Weather is expected over the Eastern Sierra through Monday with a Warming trend through Sunday……Monsoonal Flow Resumes Tuesday with an increasing chance of Rainfall for Mono County…

After a couple nice days of rainfall the weather will be dry here in the high country with a strong warming trend Through Sunday.  High Temps by Sunday and Monday will be in the upper range of the mid 80s with lows in the low 50s. South-East flow and dynamics will return Tuesday through Thursday next week along with Rain Showers and Thunderstorms.

Enjoy the Wine Fest…..Later today and Saturday…..Two of the best wineries will be attending from the Howell Mt appellation in the Napa area. “Saunter” and “Outpost Winery’s” are some of the best from that region!

 

Discussion:

This mornings guidance along with the water vapor loop shows a weak trof of low pressure off the CA Coast at 135W, ushering in a drier SW flow into California. With the drier air, comes a more stable air mass, more sunshine, rain free conditions and slightly warmer temps. The upper low will not come inland, but instead, lift north along the same longitude in response to increasing heights from the east over the weekend. The result will be that the continental high over our countries mid section will retrograde west over Nevada and California by Sunday.  This westward shift will challenge the warmest temps so far this Summer here in the Eastern Sierra Sunday, and again Monday.

Next week the guidance suggests that the upper high will begin to weaken and a SE flow develops again out of the Desert Southwest. A Rich Moisture source is currently in place over NW Mexico. This in time will be drawn north into AZ then NW into Eastern CA Tuesday through Thursday. This South East flow is the Monsoon, (seasonal wind) which will be accompanied by a more dynamic, unstable air mass….And the possibility of additional rainfall for the Sierra.

If you remember, the Climate Forecast Systems forecast for the eastern sierra for July posted here in the Dweeb Report had indicated that precipitation for July would be in excess of 200% of Normal. Normal is probably about an inch of Rain for the month of July here in Mammoth. Yesterdays Rainfall tallied between .2 and .4 inches over the Town of Mammoth Lakes.

Kelvin Wave:

Another robust kelvin wave is located over the Maritime Continent and is progressing east along the Equator. In the front of this system is a down welling component that showing up, evidenced by the warming of the subsurface ocean waters between 160E and the Dateline.  In my opinion,  this looks like it will effectively re-energize the Nino Basin later this Summer and Fall. You can track this Kelvin Wave at the following link and watch its progress this Summer and Fall.

SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

ENSO:

The latest advisory from the CPC indicates that there is a 70% chance of a Weak to Moderate by the end of the Summer.  Furthermore, those odds increase to 80% by Fall. The Dweebs believe that a Weak to Moderate El Nino will have an affect on California’s weather pattern next winter and Spring.

The ONI index is used in the following study for determining El Ninos effect upon precipitation over California. This research has been a work in progress by Meteorologist Jan Null a current CCIM and past lead weather service forecaster in the Bay Area.

You can review his work here at this link:  http://ggweather.com/enso2014/

Also since there is likely going to be a lot of rumors flying around the next 6 month about El NINO, I though it would be appropriate to include Jan Nulls List of Myths, some of which you may actually hear from someone this Summer or fall…

SEE:  http://ggweather.com/enso/enso_myths.htm

Have a great weekend

 

The Dweeber………………………:-)