Upper Low near Central Sierra Crest this Morning will Orbit counter clockwise into Western NV first, then over Northern Ca, then down the West Coast….More Showers and Thunderstorms expected this week….
Monday August 4, 2014
Posted at 9:15 am by Howard
Latest Guidance now shows a return of the southeast flow next Monday. This is about 4 to 5 days earlier than the models showed yesterday. We’ll have to call this the Summer of Monsoon because we are racking up some big numbers now for the number of days of rain over Mono County as well as SE flow. We still have all of August and the new guidance keeps south to southeast flow in our picture on and off through the 3rd week of August.
Another point that no one is chatting about is that SSTA’s over the Sea of Cortez as well as along the Baja coast up to Pt conception are running greater than +4C and +4C to +6C in the Sea of Cortez where temperatures are above 90F degrees. I am sure that this extra warmth has something to do with the amount of moisture coming into CA and NV. Be ready for a late Summer Tropical storm to come up the west coast or Sea of Cortez effecting the deserts and even possibly LA.
Today the old Cutoff is meandering around the northern part of the state near Sac, with a lot of rain over Northern CA. I hope that it brings relief to the fire fighters up there as they could use it…
The track of the upper low/Vort Center will be south to near Fresno by Wednesday evening. So expect the TSRW’s to pick up again over Mono County tomorrow afternoon if the models verify, with both the timing and the track. By Thursday the weak Vort center will be back where it started, over southern CA. However, it will be so weak not much in the way of convection is expected over their local Mts..
Speaking of So/Cal Mts….A near 500-Year Rain Event occurred near the Mt. Baldy area See: https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/496479735652704257/photo/1
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….;-)
Mostly cloudy w/Light rain this Am then a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon…especially if we get some Sun today…..Areas over more Eastern CA and just to our north may have heavy rain. If we get an hour or two of Sun today, Mammoth could get heavy rain as well. It all depends upon the amount of sunshine….
Precipitable water amounts of between and inch and close to two inches are found throughout much of California. This has creating humid conditions where it is warm or hot and damp weather where it is cool… The upper disturbance that carried this air mass into CA has weakened. However, it is located over/near the sierra crest/Tulare county on a line west of bishop. In that there are no real steering mechanisms with which to move this upper center. The center will most likely have a mind of its own, orbiting counter-clockwise between Western NV and as far west as the CA coast throughout much of this week. Eventually a weak upper trof will pick this low up and carry the remains of this system out of here by next Thursday or Friday. Although PWAT will gradually be on the decrease, there will be more daytime heating to compensate for the lessening of moisture as the week progresses. According to the latest NAM model….Weak forcing from the far west cyclonic circulation will return this Wednesday, bringing a bit of an increase of TSRWs before heading south down the coast.
If the models are correct, an upper high begins to build over our area Sunday for dry and warmer weather with above normal temps Saturday into Sunday…. This will be followed by even warmer weather early next week as the four corners high rebuilds…then retrogrades toward AZ…..All this while a southeast flow returns to Eastern CA for more thunder as we get Monsoon IV…….Wednesday or Thursday next week….
Presently, the smoke from the French Fire has been suppressed westward for the time being…..Mammoth is clear and cool…. The fire is 30% contained…
Smoke may make a return Tuesday depending if the Upper Low shifts far enough north then SW for westerly or southwesterly flow at 700MB and 500MB to develop. That is forecasted to occur beginning Tuesday……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)