Weak remains of upper low nearing Fresno this afternoon with breeze shift expected from the east…..Thunderstorm threat increases today with the combo of sun and weak dynamics…..Drying coming in Friday leading to warm dry weekend……
Wednesday August 6, 2014
Posted at 9:31 am by Howard
Small vort center is west of Mammoth is AM headed south to LA. This remains of the summer storm system that brought all the moisture over the weekend is continuing to weaken. However….With sunshine added to the mix today, residual moisture and Southern Mono Counties location in favorable NE quad of upper low/Vt max, there will be a better chance of rain and thunder for Mammoth Lakes today. By Thursday the low will be so far south that the dynamic’s part of the equation will be gone. Fridays weather will be effected by the storm in the Gulf of AK kicking out through the pacific NW bringing drier air to our region. The Weekend will be warmer with highs in the mid 70s. Expect the typical summer buildups with a few isolates showers some where over the county.
Death Valley crushing its all-time record for the coolest August 3 high temperature. Death Valley was 15 degrees cooler than the record high Minimum. The high temperature at Death Valley of 89 degrees Sunday, was 33 degrees cooler than normal for August 3 and 15 degrees cooler than the previous record minimum high temperature of 104 degrees. The Cool temps were a product of an exceptionally moist atmosphere and persistently cloudy skies for a few days.
Outlook and long-range:
The latest medium models are showing the return of the amplified Trough/Ridge pattern by the first of next week. As although the current Gulf of AK low ejects out through the pacific NW Friday, a new one takes its place. This will have the effect of pumping up another strong upper west coast ridge early next week leading to more above normal temps for our area. Additionally the upper GO/AK trof that will be kicking out early this weekend, will leave a small cut off low off the central coast of CA early next week. This cutoff is bound to set up some upper divergence over the sierra and with the warmer temps there is likely to be some thunderstorms. The big question is where? Will it be the northern sierra or central sierra. My bet is that it will be further north. Eventually the cut off gets sheered NE through Northern CA by Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, strong heating will once again occur over the far west with hot temps returning, due to the height rises associated with the west coast ridge and four corners subtropical high. This is the period going into the weekend of the 16th. The ECMWF is more bullish with the return of monsoon moisture. However it is what happened after that weekend that is of interest.
Both global models retrograde the amplifying upper ridge much further west which will have profound effects over the far west if the models are correct……
I will leave the tease in for now……….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)