Two weeks left of Warm Summer Weather….Then rolling into Fall….. How is the Crystal Ball Looking for Winter…..
Friday September 5, 2014
Posted at 3:56 pm by Howard
Monday AM Update: Showers and a few thunderstorms rolled through the high county this morning. Mammothweather.com picked up .01 hundreds. More precip was possible today and this evening. This is part of the remains of Tropical depression Norbert. Temperatures will be cooler today with the absence of sunshine to a significant degree, then warm Tuesday and Wednesday. Well above normal temps are expected this weekend.
Although Strong height rises are expected by next Friday, another tropical storm is expect to spin up to hurricane strength by this Friday off the coast of south central MX. It will be called Odile. Odile is likely to become another major Hurricane and effect the Baja Coast with at least Strong Surf. The latest track is NW off the coast of Baja early next week according to the Latest GFSX. The latest 12z ECMWF was only out to Thursday night this week so no help. On a GFSX track, the Tropical storm will create another significant swell for Southern CA by the early to middle part of next week.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)
Cat 3 hurricane Norbert was off the South Central coast of Baja this morning with sustained winds of 115MPH and “out-flow” moisture moving NW over the Baja peninsula. The center will begin its weakening process soon as it moves over cooler water. Moisture will continue to Move NW up the coast of Baja and then into Southern California Sunday. There has been a change in the guidance overnight that now reflects a change in the configuration and mostly the timing of the off shore CA trof…with a slower progress. This will have the effect of drawing up moisture into Southern and Central California. Moisture from Norbert will move into the Sierra Sunday night through Monday night before it gets shunted eastward during the day on Tuesday. Thus the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms has been added to both the southern and central sierra for Sunday night through Tuesday. Although it will be dry Wednesday through the end of that week…….Another tropical storm will be lurking for the SW states the following week and is progged to move right up the Sea of Cortez.
This has been another “Best Summer Ever”! A mixed bag of above normal temps and lots of Thunderstorms. So many thunderstorm’s, that they actually kept the Mono Lake level from dropping at the usual rate. September has rolled in, above normal temperatures are expected to continue with highs in the mid 70s….
Mammoth Lakes is expected to continue experiencing above normal in temperatures. Looking that the ECMWF and GFS global models, the next 2 weeks is for dry weather with well above normal temperatures…Possibly right on through the equinox. Heights continue to be normal to above normal. The ECMWF control did show a cool down with a stronger trof mid month in which the GFSX showed nothing. The instances of above normal heights highlight both models ensembles…..and so we have lots of warm sunny days ahead for quite a while.
Climo: The CFS has above normal temps continuing through October with below normal precipitation. Remember these are climate models and do not show the day to day or even week to week weather events that are possible.
The Dweebs take: As far as any bias, it all depends upon ENSO for a wet CA. At the moment, we are looking at weak to possibly moderate El Nino and a Modoki one at that. Not all that great of a bias toward wet…unless it comes on strong later this year. And it may as Kelvin Wave action is in the cards and the PDO is still supporting it.
The QBO is quite negative in its phase and so it favors a cold east and a warm west. IE (Lots of Blocking)
The PDO is modestly positive and further supports ridging during the warmer part of the year. However, with it in the positive phase, it favors wet over Southern, CA
ENSO is neutral.
Those that predict the winter early:
Joe Bastardi is calling for the Sierra to be norm to below normal in precipitation. He is analoging the Winter of 1976-77 to this one. The Dweebs do not like that!
The Old Farmers Almanac is calling for below normal snowfall in the Central Sierra.
The Climate Forecast System at the moment is showing a winter that is late…like January or even February, but indicated very heavy precipitation for most of California February and into March
Other Climate forecasters acknowledge that it is impossible to forecast the winter with any accuracy with out including October and November in its data.
What do you think?? A lot is on the line for California.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)