Warmer Weather the next Two Days with Light Winds and PC skies…Winds beginning to come up Firday with a Chance of Snow Friday/Night…..
Monday October 27, 2014
Posted at 5:32 pm by Howard
Wednesday AM Update:
1. Splitting Trof off the pacific northwest Thursday night will shift most energy into Mono County Southward. Even Los Angelus will get rain now from this storm. Snowfall in the high country will average a foot over the crest with 3 to 6 inches for the Towns of Mammoth and June. Friday will be increasingly windy with gusts to 45 MPH in the Town of Mammoth so for the trick or treater’s…..get it done early!!
For Today and Thursday…slightly warmer temps can be expected with highs in the mid to upper 60s…..Lows in the 30s
Tuesday PM Update:
The Dweebs took a look at the latest QPF from NCEP/WPC and noted that Mono County was in for about 1/2 inch of QPF. It also indicated that the Northern Sierra would fair better with over an inch of precip. I looked that both the 00z EC’s QPF over the weekend and the 18ZGFS.
NCEP/WPC must be looking at and using the EC for its guidance. However at this distance in time, the GFS is probably better with at least an inch of QPF for Mono County over the Crest. The latest guidance is splitting the Trof as in comes inland with more of the energy diving into Mono County than the Northern Sierra. The net effects would be to slow the system down and begin the precipitation later in the day Friday and delay the main precipitation until later that night of Halloween. By Sunrise Saturday, the bulk of the snowfall will be over, with a cold showery snowfall pattern continuing throughout the day. It will be cold Saturday with highs in the 30s…. How Rude! Expect gusty winds of 30 to 40 MPH at times…nothing unusual for Mammoth Lakes Friday.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)
Slow warming trend underway as some flat ridging takes place. Thursday will be the warmest day with highs in the mid 60s in Mammoth before the 1st good storm moves in Friday afternoon. Great news today as although no official El Nino declared by NCEP because they use the ENSO 3.4 region as a guide, a couple of the indices are ready touting it. Of Note: The SOI; Southern Oscillation Index Value from Queensland, AU for the last 90 days is -8.3. Daily Contribution -10.6. This along with the MEI says we are already there…..That weak El Nino conditions are under way.
New 12z Monday GFSX and 00Z Monday ECMWF are similar that over the next two weeks a series of significant storms are headed for Central and Northern CA….
It all good……
Todays NCEP CFSv2 from has The Mammoth Lakes region’s Precipitation at a 250% Deviation from Normal with 8.5 inches of water EQ by November 30th. If that verifies….At 10:1, 85 inches of snow by months end over the upper elevations.
Mammoths Precipitation as a deviation of normal from December 1st through the 10th is 150% of normal.
Additionally…the model shows an additional 1.5 inches of water the first 10 days of December for a total of about 9.5 inches of water over the next 45 days. That would be 8 feet of snow the way it falls over the upper elevations….If it works out.