Archive for October, 2014

Get out this Weekend and take Some Fall Pictures…..The Fall Foliage has Peaked in the High Country and Potential Windy conditions are expected Later Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will strip a lot of the Aspens Next Week…..

Friday AM Update:

It will be slightly cooler today over yesterday with at least mid 60s in the forecast for Mammoth Lakes.  The long wave upper high although weaker, will both retrograde westward later today and Saturday then expand into CA from well off shore. This will have the effect of bringing some warming back into Mammoth Saturday. (Upper 60s)   However, with the new long wave ridge further west Sunday and although the heights will be higher Saturday into Sunday, a system moving into the Pacific NW and then Northern Great Basin Saturday night into Sunday with bring cooler air at the surface. A back door style cool front will push through. Surface pressures will build behind the front over the Great Basin for cooling Saturday night and Sunday. This will bring about 10 degrees of cooling Sunday over Saturdays highs. High temps in Mammoth will be near 60 on Sunday. “A Real Fall Day”. Some brief warming will occur Monday after early AM lows drop into the 20s that morning.

Some of the Models now stronger and deeper with the West Coast Trof Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS from the 06z run last night brings the possibility of showers as far south as Mammoth/Yosemite.  The Dweebs will look to see later today if the other models follow and will update Saturday. As mentioned in the headlines……Potential moderate to strong winds may be headed our way Tuesday into Wednesday so do not wait to snap those Fall Foliage photos this weekend…..I understand that the walk around Convict Lake is spectacular!!!

Longer range ECMWF shows another significant Trof beyond the following weekend (21st of October), as the tempo picks up with the Westerlies.  Additionally….I see several systems headed into the west coast through the 25th. The wet season is beginning now for mainly the Pacific Northwest and Northern CA. It is possible that some of those will bring some rain and snow to our high country over the next 3 weeks……It is beginning to happen…..

Climate Models:

Latest NCEP, CFS VS 2  Model for Precip shows close to an inch of precipitation by the end of October for our area and for November up through the 24th about 2+ inches for a total of 3 to 3.5 inches.

So far the ECMWF is pretty dry through the 25 of October…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….

Slow cooling trend the next few days….Then back to the mid to upper 60s this weekend…..Changes still in the longer range next week…..

Today’s guidance continued to show the upper ridge over the far west weakening and at the same time….more instability aloft.  Not enough to warrant putting showers in the forecast but a few sprinkles might not be all that surprising.  Heights aloft are probably a bit higher than climo and so temps today will still be a bit above normal. At 500mb the circulation  shows a very weak baggy trof within a long wave ridge.   Temperatures will continue their slide to near climo by Friday.   At the same time, Upper ridging will develop off shore and expand eastward into this weekend, allowing temperatures to recover a bit Saturday and Sunday as the 588DM iso-height visits California one last time?

As mentioned in past discussions….the tropical western pacific is quite active producing strong Typhoons now. Typhoon Phanfone last weekend hit Japan and hits energy is now wrapped up in a deep low over the West central pacific.  A stronger Cat 5 typhoon VongFong is currently re-curving to the NW and continues to spin up with sustained winds of 165MPH and gusts near 200MPH predicted before the end of today. VongFong is the strongest Tropical storm in the world so far in 2014.  Why do the Dweebs mention these tropical storms in it discussion’s? Because in October, there is a link between tropical storms in the western pacific, their phasing with the westerlies and west coast weather.

 

It appears that this time, the phasing effects of VongFong will bring cooler unsettled weather to the central west coast the second half of next week with even the chance of precipitation and below normal temperatures.  I am using the support of the MJO which strongly protruds into phase I of the Wheeler-Hedon Phase Space.

See:  MJO    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

See: Phase 1 Composites for Precip       http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/SON/combined_image.png  

See Phase 1 Composites for Temperatures    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/SON/combined_image.png

 

Some interesting curiosities….

Looking at the SSTA’s over the mid latitudes  there is a cold pool at about 175E with legs that is stretched back to the NW pacific and at the same time, the SSTA loop shows a tongue of cold water extending westward as well to about 150west.  This may eventually lead to a strenghting of the positive PDO that has been weakening that past few months.  See:  http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/figure-13.png

There is a modest warm pool in the subtropics at about 170W that is really Juxtaposed to the cold pool. The warm pool will probably weaken over time.

For the record…..the last few months has shown the +PDO indices headed toward 0 and weakening.

See:  http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Kelvin Wave action…  There is plenty of it and so expect more warm subsurface water to be pushed east with it rising over time.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

The near records high temps of the past weekend will slowly give way to cooler days by the end of this week……Upper Pattern over far west is still dry for the next 10 days…However there are some important changes as we move into the first half of next week……..

About the Hunter Blood Moon and Eclipse Wednesday AM:

October 8, 2014: Total Eclipse of the Moon. This lunar eclipses will be fully visible from Western North America (and Alaska and Hawaii), but observers in Eastern North America will only be able to see part of the eclipse before the Moon sets below the horizon. The Moon will enter the penumbra at 1:14 am PDT (4:14 am EDT) on October 8th and will leave the penumbra at 6:35 am PDT (9:35 am EDT).

Totality: PDT  3:25am to 4:24AM Wednesday AM

 

It was another spectacular weekend in the high country with Fall foliage bursting with color! Mammoth had highs in the mid 70s this past weekend while Bishop in the low to mid 90s….Although these are not records, they are pretty darn close!   The upper high breaks down a bit this week and gives way to just slightly above norm temps and more dry weather through next weekend.  The Dweebs have to make at least a brief mention about Tropical storm Simon which was once a strong Hurricane (Cat 3) last Saturday.  Simon Will likely bring more heavy rain to parts of AZ and NM in the coming days.

As the Dweebs have mentioned many times……It is often times what happens over the western pacific that affects our weather here along the west coast.  The phasing of tropical storms over the western pacific with the westerlies is critical, to the down stream pattern in October.  If the next tropical storm constructively phases and the heat in that storm builds that ridge down stream north of Hawaii…we will get quite the unsettled pattern.   The next Typhoon (VongFong) will become extra tropical and phase with the westerlies early next week……  Stay tuned!!!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)