Fair…Dry and mild this week with above normal temps by Thursday……The Blocking Pattern will Continue through Monday…..
Tuesday November 4, 2014
Posted at 8:14 am by Howard
OK…..What ever happened to the 8.5 feet forecasted by the CFSv2 for November? In that…that’s not likely to happen now. A more important question is, in light of the Strong +PNA already established, what does it say today about the future?
The 12Z run of the CFSV2 11/5 2014 shows about 6 inches of water through the 20th of December. Most of that falls beginning the last week of November through the 20th of December. The CFSv2 did a very good job forecasting a wet Summer for our area last Spring. So far it has not done a good job for the Month of November.
PS Thank you all for signing up for the Platinum Powder Alert system. I have to admit that this is experimental this winter. However, if it works out, I will continue doing it next year.
Upper Ridging is really taking hold off the far west coast as a familiar omega block sets up. The upper Trof at the dateline, Upper Ridge over the far west and the Upper Trof over the Eastern CONUS sets up. This is a very stable pattern and although there will be periods of short waves that will weaken the upper ridge, they are not likely to break the pattern down. There is often times a 21 day cycle that may not break until around Thanksgiving in this case. Officially we’ll remain dry with below normal precip though the 17th. There is no doubt for the time being that all the warm water along the pacific coast, up into the Eastern Gulf of AK is helping in supporting the +PNA pattern over the far west and Eastern Pacific. The AO is negative as well.
SSTA’s increased again in the NINO 3.2 region with .6C indicated by the NCEP. This was up from .5C a few weeks before. More importantly, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology updates more frequently and shows as of the November 2nd, +.071C This is great news as finally a lot of the Kelvin Wave related warmth is finally rising to the surface throughout the Nino Basin. We want to see this warming continue up to at least +.9 to +.1C. Additionally, the Nino 4 region that is more east near the dateline is about +.9C. So we are witnessing some significant rapid warming of the Nino Basin as I write! The updated PDO indice will be out on the 8th of November for October. I think that based upon what the SSTA’s look like across the central and north central pacific westward, it is going to be even stronger than September in the number.
Stay Tuned…..Things are going in the right direction!!! Even though in the meantime the Omega Block is not encouraging…
Dr Howard and the Dweeb………………………..:-)