Active Upper Jet Across the Pacific is Moisture Leaden…..Will take Aim on West Coast Thursday…Main QPF to Saturate Northern CA with diminishing amounts for Mono County…..However this system could still dump another 1 to 2 feet up on Mammoth Mtn by Friday Night…..Active Pattern to continue with more storms in Mammoth’s Future the Following Week…..
Monday December 8, 2014
Posted at 12:21 pm by Howard
Models trending wetter……..This looks like a good old fashion Mammoth Storm…..will up date Wednesday,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Tuesday AM Update:
Strong Upper Jet of 180Knotts at 300MB will drive the first powerhouse storm in two years into the high country. The system has plenty of moisture and dynamics to dump a good 3 feet on Mammoth Mtn, and between 12 and 24 inches in town. Most likely this storm will be all snow for the Town of Mammoth. Road crews will be busy Thursday night with the highest precip per hour rates coming in around Midnight. Heavy snow to turn to showers Friday Mid Morning with snow showers lingering into early Saturday. After a partly cloudy weekend, another 2 system will bring more snow to the high country….Monday night into Wednesday……It looks like a break after mid week next week…..
A fast Zonal Flow pattern has set up across the pacific as it progresses off the Asian Coast, all the way to about 140West. To the west of Mammoth is an inter mountain ridge that will give way to the belt of Westerlies Thursday. By this Wednesday, clouds will be on the increase along with an increase of Wind over the upper elevations. Snowfall will begin later in the day Thursday with heavier snowfall Friday…… At the Moment, snowfall accumulations look to be in the 6 to 12 inch range for the town of Mammoth Lakes and between 12 and 24 inches over the upper elevations. This begins the next storm cycle with at least another 3 to possibly 4 systems over the following 6 to 10 days. Some will be colder with less snowfall. Some will split and favor Southern CA. Some will give our local area footage. The details as always may be found here at Mammothweather.com.
In that the main Bull’s-eye of moisture is still Northern California and the Pacific Northwest, it is considered more of a normal precipitation pattern for the west coast and not ENSO related.
That may still change in January…..
Comparing both the ECMWF and GFS, the QPF with the GFS is a little drier then the EC….However, not enough to change the Dweebs thinking of 1 to 2 feet over the higher elevations. There looks to be a break with improving weather toward fair WX later Saturday into Sunday. However, the winds will come up again later Sunday afternoon over the crest and develop over the lower slopes later that night into Monday AM. Snow looks likely to return again sometime during the day Monday next week. That system will weaken as it comes and split Tuesday. The opportunity for some moderate amounts of snowfall looks good. This is the timing of the new 12Z ECMWF as of 1:12 local time Monday.
The Dweebs see yet another system the following Friday the 19th.
The timing for all system systems next week are subject to change of course……..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)