One more system to move through the Sierra Friday into Saturday…Then a fair weather stretch…..Christmas Day Storm still Lurking…..
Thursday December 18, 2014
Posted at 9:09 am by Howard
Mammoth Pass to date has “about” 3.5 inches of water in the rain tip for the season. Compared to “about” 4.5 this time last year. So this year we are still behind, water-wise last year at this time.
A Quick update to indicate that Mammoth has indeed received between 1/2 and 3 inches overall, between the village and the crest. A northwest flow aloft is providing the path for over running from the Pacific into CA. The off shore ridge will eventually take over Sunday into Monday. It then gets squashed Tuesday into Wednesday allowing an inside slider to bring winds, cooling and some snow showers to our region. Models have been struggling with the track of the Christmas Eve/Day system the past several days. The GFS seems now to have the best handle with it. The EC seems to want to dig it too far to the west.
The main message here is that no major storms are in our outlook for the next 6 to 10 days….However, some light snowfall is certainly possible. The night of lights looks spectacular weather wise; some cloudiness but nothing that will harm the show tonight for the fireworks.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)
Friday AM Update:
The 12Z Thursday run of the ECMWF was just a one time “heart throb”. However, one has to think about what it was looking at to come up with what it showed, just beyond the end of the year. It may flip back. IE “AR”
Back to reality…..Today through Saturday AM will have some Snow Showers or light snow and the chance of some light accumulations by Saturday AM. We ridge up Sunday into Monday with clear sky’s and calm winds Monday into Tuesday night with a temperature inversion. On Wednesday, Christmas Eve, we’ll experience increasing winds over the upper elevations with a Northwest slider approaching and the chance of some light snowfall Wednesday afternoon or Evening into Christmas day. The Christmas Eve/Day System is small but potent. Its effects will be determined by how far west it digs. The models do not have an entire handle on it yet but it looks especially cold…..
For the visitors planning a trip to the high country, here is your temperature forecast for the Town of Mammoth the next 5 days. Note, I did not include Christmas Eve or Christmas Day because of a storm the will move into the west that may be quite cold. The exact track of that system is unclear at this time.. Also note that the morning lows are quite mild due to the inversion anticipated. These temps are forecasted for the elevation of the Village at Mammoth. It will be much colder over the lower elevations of Mammoth and especially Long Valley including the Mammoth AP. So not be fooled by the morning temperature forecast put out for the Mammoth Airport for morning lows….It can be 10 degrees or more colder…..
Friday 35 25
Saturday 40 30
Sunday 48 32
Monday 47 32
Tuesday 47 31
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)
PS…. Just had a quick look at the New 12Z GFS for Christmas Eve/Day. The model takes that short wave further east on this mornings run and so the outlook based on this particular model run will mean just wind and cooling that day. Stay tuned as the Dweebs will be updating daily through the end of this year…..
For those of you that have access to the weeks 1 and 2 ECMWF Control. Take a look at the new 12Z run today. If that does not get your hart pumping…..your probably a Zombie!
Update for the Christmas System, is that it slides more inside….So Windy and showery and cold is more like it….
Weather systems over the past 6 weeks have built up a base depth of between 2.5 and 4 feet over Mammoth Mt. All ski resort corridors are now open including Little Eagle, Canyon Lodge and the Main Lodge. The Dweebs expect a few more inches of snowfall Friday into Saturday before we ridge up Later Saturday into Monday.
The Dweebs Weather update shows a beautiful today with lots of sunshine…there will be clouds as well that will increase over night. Breezes will be light this morning but increase tonight. The next and last in the series of weather systems will move through the sierra Friday into Saturday bringing light amounts of snowfall. Possibly a few inches. Thereafter, we go dry Sunday through Wednesday.
The next weather system for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day is being handled differently by the global models. The Euro brings a cold system down the coast with snowfall for the Eastern Sierra while the American models bringing some wind and cooling but keep the weather dry. Stay tuned to this change. I expect better visibility “in the models” later this weekend for Christmas Day!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)