1:53PM   It’s Currently Snowing in Mammoth Lakes!! 


Most QPF models are pretty much the same, calling for about 1/2 inches of moisture for this area of the Sierra. However, HPC is touting an updated  3/4 of an inch for the crest, Day 1 QPF.   HPC has a habit of being a little on the “Wet Foot” side, so will stick with initial snowfall amounts of up to 8 inches over the crest and hope for more.

That means that the Town should be in for a good 3 to 5 Inches overnight. With that said, CRFC is calling for a 1/2 inch of moisture in the Yosemite area. With a system with Orographic’s like this one, the Dweebs will often times double that for the water EQ. Now …..in that most of the snow will fall after the cold front, “FROPA” in the colder air; And…..considering snowfall ratios are expected to average 13:1 to 14:1, we may end up with a present surprise Christmas AM in the upper elevations of more snowfall than expected or even the town..

Longer Range:

Next week the upper air pattern with really begin to amplify. At the same time, some retrogression will be under way. The eastern pacific ridge wants to slowly retrograde to about 135W to 140 West. This location, this amplified, this time of the year, can bring some of Mammoth Coldest weather. The Dweebs would not be surprised to see below night-time below zero temps developing around the New Years Holiday.   At this point in time, it is not clear of the storms track and if the systems will be either inside sliders or outside/coastal sliders. Several ECMWF and GFSX ensemble members have shown the development of an Modified Arctic Upper Low that develops over Northern CA and drops south about the end of the year or within the first week after.  The location of this system will be key to snowfall here in the Eastern Sierra.  Additionally, folks in the Owens Valley will need to follow the weather later next week as if this cold system as cold as it looks gets close to the coastal water of Paso Robles or Santa Barbara, this would have the potential of pumping a lot of snow up the Valley.

Comment: This is not a forecast at the moment, just discussion on the possibilities……


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)