Happy New Year From the Dweebs……The Cold Northerly Flow Aloft has shifted East a Bit…Temps have rebounded nicely in the High Country…..Next BC, Clipper will Tap even colder air as it dives south down the coast the next few days……Tuesday/Night/Wed will be Brutal Temperature Wise…..Long Range Models still hinting at Under Cutting By 2nd weekend of January..
Thursday December 25, 2014
Posted at 9:35 am by Howard
Saturday PM: Attn. Condo Managers
Just looked at the new 12z ECMWF 700MB temps. The EC shows between -18C and -19C at 06Z Wednesday (Tuesday night). That’s about -2F on the Mountain in free air. Tuesday will be very cold with a wind chill factor over the higher elevations. By Wednesday AM temps will be well Below Zero in many areas of Mono County that are wind protected.
In short term, QPF models could easily underplay snow amounts on “bowling ball” type vort max and low track directly south along or just to west of Sierra crest on Tuesday/Wednesday. These are calling bowling balls because of there shape and are heavy hitters with QPF as opposed the the ligher northwest sliders or back door fronts which “brush” quickly through the area. QPF models down play most of these north to south system because the cold advection term in the QG Omega equation results in weaker Omega or UVV…however this is often negated by slower moving lows and deformation zones along with more instability due to the cold pool aloft and possilby better orographics. Stay tuned.
Week two Ensemble and control of the global models are all either suggesting or hinting of an “AR” type event in CA around the 2nd week of January. The Arctic infusion ahead of the WSW Flow makes sense so will take it more seriously. This possible “AR” event in California’s future will be the talk of the town the next 6 to 10 days….. I for one will not get all that excited until its on our door step….. Remember, the split flow blues?? Yea it’s on my mind….
A short wave ridge of high pressure will bring warmer temperatures today with highs in the upper 30s. It will be mostly Sunny and dry. Temperatures will reach 40 degrees on Sunday. Nights will actually be coldest below 8000ft after midnight as compared to the upper elevations above the inversion.
8000 ft low temperatures will be in the low 20s. Low temperatures will range down into the single digits and teens over the lower elevation valleys between 7500ft and 6500 ft.
The next system for early/mid next week does not have any over-water trajectory for the upper low itself. So only light snowfall is expected early Tuesday morning into New years Day. This is an Arctic system with the coldest air so far this season…. Highs in Mammoth will be in the low teens on Wednesday, New Years Eve Low temps most likely below zero.
Note: At this time it is possible but unlikely that the Owens Valley will have any heavy snowfall as the upper low itself is forecasted to remain on shore. (No moisture tap) So light snowfall and accumulations are still in the cards…..possibly an inch or two. I’ll update on this Sunday….It will go either way by then….
The Next Storm Cycle looks to be in the 2nd week of January…
Have a Happy New Year!