The Calm Before the Arctic Bowling Ball Upper Low…..Beautiful Weather with Highs in the 40s….Good Set Up Tuesday Afternoon and Night for Lake Effect Lee Vining Dumper!
Sunday December 28, 2014
Posted at 3:36 pm by Howard
So Far No Lake Effect for Mono Lake Communities Lee Vining or Mono City reported…..
Temperature and wind conditions favorable for it, however no surface convergence/250MB couplet. Well see what happens tonight….
Coldest portion of Arctic Air Mass over us this evening up until midnight, but temps will change little Wednesday. It will be colder Wednesday morning…
No clear idea on extended for the following week as far as a storm…
Finally some warmth! Highs today climbed into the 40s with Sunshine and light breezes over the lower elevations while the upper elevations were seeing stronger gusts. Our Arctic Front is on the way for Tuesday.
Here are the highlights and comments in regards to this system:
1. It is cold but not a record breaker.
2. The lack of snow cover over Northern NV will take some punch out of the system.
3. It will be windy over the upper elevations but northing exceptional. IE 70mph to 90Mph winds in some areas near the crest.
4. Although it is a no a record breaker, the models have 700MB temps near -20C early Wednesday AM for our area. 500MB temps are in the -30s that sometime.
5. The models usually under forecast the precip for the sierra with a system like this. The QPF shows a 5 day total of about .25. With snow to water ratios greater then 20:1 on Wednesday, Should the deformation zone set up over southern Mono county, we could pick up more then the 1 or 2 inches predicted. It looks like it will set up more over the Northern Owens Valley and so parts of the Valley may pick up several inches of Snow between late Tuesday Night and News Years Eve. Again, this will depend upon the actual track of the low, how fast it moves out and where the deformation zone sets up.
6. Now here is want looks interesting…. Looking at the 850MB heights/RH, the iso heights are really packed up against the Eastern Sierra. Temperatures at 700MB are -19C and -9C at 850MB. the RH is 80% to 90%. Light NE Flow at those temperatures spell the possibility of some Excellent Mono Lake Effect Snow Conditions that may effect Lee Vinning and possibly June Mtn, Beginning later Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday Mid AM.
I am still seeing the consistency in the longer range for a break through of the Westerlies. However, it is too soon to get excited as the event begins about a week from this Wednesday.