Archive for year 2014

Beautiful Weekend with Springtime Afternoon Buildups….A Few Flurries during the late afternoon then a Fair and Warmer Sunday with still some build ups……Changes in the Pattern for Mid Week will bring Snowfall….

Monday AM:

No change to earlier thinking with the timing of the beginning of the precip into the high country early Tuesday evening. Snow Levels crash Tuesday night with snowfall accumulations good enough for a plow expected in the morning….then again in the late afternoon.

The big change is in the longer range, with the system for Sunday coming in earlier now and not splitting like before. The Sierra stands a good chance of a better outcome snowfall wise Sunday with another system hot on its heals Monday into Tuesday.  April Roars in like a Lion? 😉

 

Sunday PM Update:

Some small changes in the short and medium range. IE it looks like a storm capable of producing a good foot of fresh now at the snow plot/main lodge.  The newer guidance beefs up the QPF up about another .25 by continuing the snowfall well into the afternoon now. So the crest may get between 15 and 18+inches now By Thursday AM.  I say plus, because;

1. There is a decent orographic component to the flow at 700mb up until the front comes through just before noon Wednesday, as well as the upper jet in the right spot dynamically earlier in the AM. That in itself, tends to give Mammoth more than what is expected over the upper elevations. Highs Wednesday near 40.

2. There is now at least one additional Vort Center that will come through in the afternoon Wednesday and the RH at 700MB is in the 90% range on the EC’s 12Z run at 2100z time. So although there may be a break in the action just after the front comes through, snowfall will pick up again fairly quickly in the early afternoon and continue through the remainder of the day. Snow showers will continue into the evening will less accumulation. Lows Thursday Am in the teens and 20s

3. This will be followed by the typical March instability (Cold air aloft/surface convection) which tends to keep the snow showers going another day, but light Accumulation’s only Thursday.  Friday looks partly cloudy w/flurries and milder.

The longer range; IE the end of this week, shows the energy of the short wave of interest next weekend, splitting south into Southern CA now. Although this is not entirely unexpected, the split may be big enough for little if any snowfall to occur in Mammoth Lakes the end of the month.  Lots of time to adjust though…..so for now, will play the wait and see and hope for the models flip back!!

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)

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An Upper High is Building in Central CA nicely today and will strengthen further bringing a warmer day tomorrow Sunday. There may even be a few flurries in the afternoon both Saturday and Sunday. These are not associated with any storm….Its just Springtime in the Sierra!

Looking down the road a few days ahead, the upper ridge will give way to a spring storm Tuesday night into Thursday. This is not expected to be a major storm….however, we may get 6 to 12 on Mammoth MT and some 3 to 6 inches in the residential areas of town. The snow level will begin at about 7000 feet Tuesday night,  than lower down to about 5500 by Wednesday. The heaviest period of precip will occur from about Day-Break Wednesday to about 12:00pm when the nose of a 105knot upper jet comes through Paso Robles….

The good news is that the pattern looks wetter after words with another storm by about Sunday with several more systems expected into April. If the Sunday storm on the 30th is not late, another inch of water is possible on the Mammoth Pass by the end of the month.

And…..The Climate Forecast System (CFS) has between 5 and 6 inches of water in the forecast for the month of April! Would that not be nice! For May, about another 1/2 to an inch! So the Spring looks wet by those numbers.

Pattern:

What the Dweebs are seeing is a persistent block over AK with a low pressure anomaly south of the North Pacific. The -EP/NP in April is typically a dry pattern here in the month of April in California. However the AO is positive and so the pattern across the US is going to be progressive and an excessive wave length should keep the short waves coming right on into California during the month of April.  As of note and of course at this time….The Sunday system next week looks like it is more of a mid latitude storm, and so Southern California may benefit more than Central Ca.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

 

Last few Days of Winter Pretty Uneventful…..Windy and cooler Today then Lighter Breezes through Tuesday…..Seasonal Temps expected From Wednesday through the weekend…..Next Chance of a storm the middle of next week…El Nino Beats On………

Few Changes Today Wed…..

Although it will be warmer today, there is a weak wave that will come through Friday/Night that might kick off some showers in the afternoon. Limited moisture and forcing will produce mostly cloudiness though, as there is not much upper jet support as well.  ECMWF still has a good system forecasted for mid week, next week for the Sierra. It may slow down a bit, but should get here, and there are others behind It. The MJO moving a bit east well into the Indian ocean should allow a better -PNA pattern to develop; and so favor the ECMWF over the GFS at this time, especially that latter part of the month and into April.  Highs in the low 50s now with lows in the 20s

More on the Kelvin Wave over the West Central, that is appearing to be epic.  The latest CFS v2 output issued the first day of spring showed from the last 10 days of monitoring, the Nino 3.4 region reaching the strong threshold by the end of October. It will be interesting to follow to see if it holds…  SEE: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

Also, there will have to be at least one more Kelvin Wave develop this Summer to be strong and travel east to keep up the momentum of down welling to keep of the momentum into the following early winter.

For the more advanced hobbyist…..see:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ARCHIVE/BRIEFING/telecon_20140318.pdf

DR Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)

 

Tuesday Update:

Forecast on track for a cooler day today with highs in the mid 40s….Next possible system to bring precip middle of next week…………………

On the Subject of Kelvin Waves and El Nino, I am passing on a link to an article by the Weather Centre, that I have found to be very interesting……Thanks to one of my followers for passing it on to me.

I did not realize the magnitude of the current Kelvin Wave, now moving across the Western and Central pacific………

See:    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/03/could-next-super-el-nino-be-forming.html

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A NW Slider in process is bringing the Northern Rockies more Winter the next few days while the Eastern Sierra experiences more wind. High temps will cool to seasonal levels today with a high near 50 with WNW winds in town gusts 30 to 45 MPH. Expect about 5 degrees of additional cooling Tuesday with temps in the mid 40s with light north breezes.   Tuesday will be the coolest day of the new week.  Thereafter, high temps will average in the low 50s the remainder of the week. Lows in the teens and 20s then mostly 20s the 2nd half of the week.

Taking a look at the GFS days+ 3, 5, 8 and 11;  It is evident that, the current north-west slider is a product of the eastern pacific ridge with modest amplitude, at about 145west.  A change in the pattern that was suggested last week still looks good with the formation of the -EPO just after mid-week. This is a pattern of a blocking ridge over AK coupled with a developing stationary upper low beneath it at about 145 West. it is indicated that the lower portion of that block will slowly progress east, setting up a deep enough Trof over the eastern pacific to get us a storm or two the following week. (ABOUT MID WEEK) (Tuesday-Wednesday+) Thereafter, it is also suggested that this long wave will possibly persist into Early April for further unsettled WX. At the moment, the storminess next week may produce a foot to a foot and a half according to the CFS V2. (Will update later this week on the QPF)

Although Winter officially ends astronomically at 9:57 AM March 20th PDT, Meteorological winter ended over 17 days ago as we began the month of March.

This mornings run of the CFS for April shows most of the precipitation for the month of April to occur within the first half. It is suggesting an adjusted 1 to 1.25 inches of QPF within that time frame……..

ENSO:

The Prospect for a significant EL Nino for next winter still look good at this time:     SEE:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

Most likely, the CFS system’s rainfall outlook for our Summer is a reflection of that. SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd5.gif

As well as warmer than normal temperatures:                                                             SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd5.gif

On the Brightside….The forest could sure use the rain…..

On the Negative side, historically, we get more high based storms in the Summer here, and thus what may happen is that we’ll have a higher incidence of Lighting in the forest.

During this late Spring and early Summer, it will be most important that locals do what ever they can to:

1.  Clear to the legal limits, small trees under the canopy near their residences.

2. Trim all snow branch’s of large trees over hanging your home. Remove small dead trees.

3. Clear a safe buffer of pine needles away from your home. Last summer we dodged a bullet

    (The upcoming fire season could be Epic! Be Prepared and Safe!!!)

 

The Dweeber…………………………:-)

 

 

Beautiful Weekend in Store…..Weather to become a bit unsettled next week with winds and cooling beginning Sunday Night into Monday…..Then stronger winds later in the week as NW or inside sliders develop…..The EPO index will dive the following week and along with the PNA…..Thus March may go out like a lion and into April….As long wave Trof sets up off the West Coast…Months End…….

Sunday PM Update:

Mammoth hits 62 degrees!!! Bishop’s high still pending but will make a run to 80 by mid/late afternoon…

With antecedent warmth in place from today near record highs…..Mondays NW west slider promises to really breeze things up….. Dry pattern to continue another week!

Long Range still indicating wet end to the month of March as high latitude block sets up in the vicinity of AK with under cutting short wave action as early as the 26th….Pattern may stay wet through months end and into April…..

Stay tuned……………………>>>>

 

The Dweeber……………………………………..:-)

 

The weather is becoming more spring like with more extreme’s in temperatures. This weekend will be warm and beautiful, then it will become windy by mid-week along with cooler temps. Further cooling is expected later as a series of short wave NW sliders become ever so closer to Central Ca. This is still a dry pattern, however an unsettled one.

Of note; there are a few teleconnections that indicate that winter is not quite over yet.  The PNA (Pacific North American Cir Pattern) will become negative as well as the EPO (The Eastern  Pacific Oscillation),  later in the month.   This is all part of the MJO progressing eastward as it emerges off Africa into the Indian Ocean. This essentially, retracts the East Asian Jet and allows retrogression to occur later in the month with key anomalies set up further west.  Thus we are likely to experience a transition to a wetter pattern later in the month and especially into the month of April. April may end up quite the surprise………..precip wise!

 

More Later…………………………:-)

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)