As Wet Windy Pattern comes to a close…. Drying trend develops with upper ridging taking hold again over the far west…milder temps on the way…..Next pattern change about the 16th…….
Monday February 9, 2015
Posted at 10:24 am by Howard
Notice: Regarding Victim’s of the Swall Meadows Fire:
As many of The Dweebs know, there was a disastrous fire last Friday that took 40 homes in the Swall Meadows area. Many of these family’s need housing at this time.
If you know of any or have friends that you would like to contact to see if they would like to rent their Mammoth or Crowley Home at this time…..
Please contact State Farm in Bishop, as they are gathering a list of homes that can be rented for 6 months or so.
State Farm in Bishop
The Dweebs had a look this morning at the Key teleconnections over the high Latts that can shape our weather future here along the central west coast. The AR event for Central California brought badly needed rainfall to the northern half of CA and added more water to the exceptionally low reservoirs. Over the next 6 to 10 days the western ridge is still in control of our temperatures and to a great extent precipitation. Looking at the teleconnection of the WPO over the next week, it becomes very negative once again. In fact this mornings GFS shows the WPO dropping to a whopping -5 sigma on the 16th. The ECMWF also shows the WPO quite negative, although not to that extent at -3.5 sigma at the same timeframe. The negative sign of WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation) favors higher than normal heights over the Bering Sea between AK and Siberia. The creates blocking and a suppressed Asian Jet. This was part of the cause of the “AR” and Pseudo pineapple connection last week. The strength of the -WPO is forecasted to be stronger this time. That is why in a previous discussion the Dweebs indicated “AR Redux” around the 18th or 19th of February. And if it does develop, it is likely to be another warm precip event, preceded by strong winds. Why do I think that it will be preceded by strong winds again? Because with the ridge in place, you are going to get much warmer than normal temperatures that are antecedent. If the upper jet’s entry is again to the north of us, convergence aloft, coupled with moisture and precipitation banking up on the west side of the sierra from an “AR” is a strong signature for lee side high wind events for the Eastern Sierra. I’ll also be watching the Wheeler Phase space to see if it goes into Phase 8 again later next week…..
PS I spoke with Cliff Man this morning of Mammoth Mt Operation’s. He said that the storm did bring very beneficial snowfall to the Mountain. Although it was heavy and wet, the upper mountain has improved remarkably in its coverage, 100% according to Cliff Mann.
Sounds like it will be great skiing and boarding for the Presidents Holiday Weekend.