Mammoth MT reporting 6 to 8 inches of cold dry powder this morning…..More on the way!!!
Saturday February 28, 2015
Posted at 10:59 am by Howard
Sunday AM (24 hour) Update:
Although yesterday afternoon’s south push of deformation never materialized enough to bring Mammoth Lakes any snowfall…..Lee Side Upslope did occur over night where Mono Lake effect brought several inches to the Lee Vining area. Upslope precip will occur today and into the afternoon where a few more inches is certainly possible. The original forecast of 6 to 12 inches over Mammoth Mt has been reached on the lower end of the QPF with Mammoth Mt reporting 6 to 8 inches yesterday AM. However, we still have another 12 to 36 hours to provide additional light snowfall accumulations. This upslope will be light today and it may take the whole day to squeeze out another inch or three over the upper elevations. The Shear Lobe coming down the coast Monday Afternoon may effect just the interior Valley of CA or possibly add an inch or two of snowfall depending upon where any convection sets up in the cold unstable air aloft. Either way it will not be a big deal. CRFC gives Yosemite .36 through Monday afternoon. Some of that will be west side precip. However the Dweebs still think that Mammoth is still in about 1 to 3 inches over the next 24 to 36 hours between 4:00AM Sunday and Monday.
We ridge up the 2nd half of the 1st week of March, then another period of precipitation is possible beginning about the 10th of March.
It is interesting to note that out west this winter, the feelings are global warming in control……..However in the east, the next Ice Age is upon them with all time records of Cold and over 1000s of miles including Canada….
It certainly has been a winter of Climatic Extreme’s across the CONUS and eastern Canada.
Current storm working our a bit better than expected as a shear lobe will reload the current system early next week… Up on the snow plot, 6 inches of snow has fallen at the Main Lodge with .50 inches of water. That is a ratio of 12:1. That’s real nice for carving!!!! More on the way…..
Yesterday afternoon and last night:
During the afternoon and evening, the upper jet slipped south. The Vorticity field was elongated in Channeled flow and so we did not get the benefit from strong UVM in the warm sector. However, enough RH within the system combined with directional speed convergence on the west side with the sierra’s topo provided 6 to 8 inches mostly over the crest while just east of the crest like the Village, 4 inches fell, and by the time the air mass traveled over the Town of Mammoth only an inch or two accumulated. Obviously an absence of strong UVM. It was mostly strong speed directional convergence benefiting the west side up to the crest and a mile or two east…..
What’s next……for Saturday.. A break in the mid to late morning hours for our area. There is an area of deformation to our north at 700MB and the upper low at 500mb is to our north. That will all be sliding south this afternoon. The Deformation Axis will pass through Mono County between 21Z and 00Z today. Snowfall rates will pick up this afternoon. So a lot more snow expected later today. By 03Z Sunday, (7:00 PM Saturday night) the deformation axis will be well south down over the Southern Sierra benefiting Bishop South.
Tonight: The flow at 700MB 10,000 feet will veer Northeasterly….. At 700MB Directional speed convergence will develop along the Sierra Eastern Slopes of Mono County. The RH at 700MB will be 80%-90% and so upslope snowfall will develop by mid evening and continue into tonight and possibly into the mid morning hours. This all according to this mornings 12Z Saturday’s NAM model. By 18Z Sunday, the upslope weakens with just isolated showers expected over the higher elevations. There will be a shear lobe dropping down the coast Monday. There will be plenty of moisture in our air mass through Tuesday AM. We’ll have to watch the convective parameter’s to see if the air mass becomes more unstable for convective snow showers Monday afternoon. The NE quad of the upper low may favor Mammoth Monday PM…..with the chance of more snowfall accumulation….
There looks to be a dry period mid week through the next weekend with a warming trend…… The next pacific storm looks to be a good 10 days away…….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)