Archive for February, 2015

As Wet Windy Pattern comes to a close…. Drying trend develops with upper ridging taking hold again over the far west…milder temps on the way…..Next pattern change about the 16th…….

Notice: Regarding Victim’s of the Swall Meadows Fire:

As many of The Dweebs know, there was a disastrous fire last Friday that took 40 homes in the Swall Meadows area.  Many of these family’s need housing at this time.

If you know of any or have friends that you would like to contact to see if they would like to rent their Mammoth or Crowley Home at this time…..

Please contact State Farm in Bishop, as they are gathering a list of homes that can be rented for 6 months or so.

Please Contact:

James Ferrell
State Farm in Bishop

7608737171

James.ferrell.jm8s@statefarm.com

 

The Dweebs had a look this morning at the Key teleconnections over the high Latts that can shape our weather future here along the central west coast. The AR event for Central California brought badly needed rainfall to the northern half of CA and added more water to the exceptionally low reservoirs. Over the next 6 to 10 days the western ridge is still in control of our temperatures and to a great extent precipitation. Looking at the teleconnection of the WPO over the next week, it becomes very negative once again. In fact this mornings GFS shows the WPO dropping to a whopping -5 sigma on the 16th. The ECMWF also shows the WPO quite negative, although not to that extent at -3.5 sigma at the same timeframe. The negative sign of WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation) favors higher than normal heights over the Bering Sea between AK and Siberia. The creates blocking and a suppressed Asian Jet. This was part of the cause of the “AR” and Pseudo pineapple connection last week.  The strength of the -WPO is forecasted to be stronger this time. That is why in a previous discussion the Dweebs indicated “AR Redux” around the 18th or 19th of February. And if it does develop, it is likely to be another warm precip event, preceded by strong winds. Why do I think that it will be preceded by strong winds again?  Because with the ridge in place, you are going to get much warmer than normal temperatures that are antecedent. If the upper jet’s entry is again to the north of us, convergence aloft, coupled with moisture and precipitation banking up on the west side of the sierra from an “AR” is a strong signature for lee side high wind events for the Eastern Sierra.  I’ll also be watching the Wheeler Phase space to see if it goes into Phase 8 again later next week…..

PS I spoke with Cliff Man this morning of Mammoth Mt Operation’s. He said that the storm did bring very beneficial snowfall to the Mountain. Although it was heavy and wet, the upper mountain has improved remarkably in its coverage, 100% according to Cliff Mann.

Sounds like it will be great skiing and boarding for the Presidents Holiday Weekend.

 

The Dweeber………………….:-)

One More Wet System on the way for Sunday PM…..This Ones a bit Colder on the Finish for More Accumulation in Town by Monday AM…..Then Fair Weather returns by Tuesday……

 

 

Monday AM:

Storm total in the form of water was between 3.25 and 3.50 inches of water over the upper elevations….  Not nearly as much as touted from all the guidance..

Mammoth Mt did manage to pick up at the 9000 foot level,  4.5 inches of snow early this morning. Although unknown at this time, more accumulated snowfall is expected over the summit.  MMSA did pick up close to two feet from the first storm over the Summit.

Additionally, the town only picked up a dusting as most of the precip was gone by the time the cold air got on here.

 

OPINION:

This is just an opinion in regards to the Fire in Swall Meadows.  Although, there is an investigation ongoing for the cause of the fire, coincidently it is alleged that there were downed power lines in that area.  It is a fact that wind and downed power lines cause fires every year. One of Reno Nevada’s biggest fires was started by downed power lines during a major wind storm in West Reno.  When you combine downed power lines with 70 MPH winds and tinder dry forests, you get an explosive condition. We here in Mammoth worry about a fire starting on the west side of the sierra blowing east, when one of our biggest concerns “should be” from downed power lines in our back yards.  Although most of Mammoth has buried power lines, there is still plenty of power poles that are not. There is no reason for this other than Edison not wanting to spend the money to bury them…..

The Dweeber………………

 

Sunday AM:

 

Overall no microphysical process took place in this pattern. The winds mixed down to the Surface. The air mass became saturated and the snow level became within 500 feet of the freezing level. The next system is the same although there is some cooler air in back of the trof.

Next weather system is moving in quicker and will leave quicker as well. The QPF for Yosemite is down to 1.67 inches from over 2.5 inches as forecasted by CRFC.  The Dweebs…remember the QPF by HPC was painted to be 12.00 inches of water.  I doubt that we had anymore then 3.00+ on the pass however we still have tonight to go.

As far as I can see the models did a piss poor job in many parameters.  On another subject, thank goodness that there were no fatalities in the Round Mt Fire where the official count from Cal Fire,  of homes destroyed is up to 40 and still counting…. The fire at this time is 65% contained.  Winds in areas along the Eastern Sierra from Mono County and to the north of RENO were clocked between 60MPH and just short of 100MPH. There was widespread wind damage for 100s of miles north with trees as large as 30 inches in diameter blown down. Some of the sierra crest station’s reported wind gusts to 134 MPH.

 

The freezing level is currently 10,700 and will lower to 10,000 by 4:00pm this afternoon. Once again the snow level like yesterday will likely be well above 9,000 to 9500 feet until tonight when the Freezing Level comes down.  The majority of the precipitation will be Between 4:00PM and 10:00PM tonight. It will be all snow in town after 10:00PM tonight. Hopefully the crest will pick up 12 to 18 inches.  It will be wet 7/1 stuff until tonight when it fluffs out lighter. In town, probably somewhere between 2 and 5 inches by dawn….  The QPF goes to 0 by 4:00AM so maybe a few isolated showers between 4:00am & 10:00am.

We then go dry in the 6 to 10 day outlook….

 

The Dweeber……………………………..:-)

 

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Wow what a wild 36 Hours.   At Mammoth Weather the Dweebs picked up 1.52 inches of Water during a wet snowfall Friday Night into Saturday morning. I picked up about 5 inches of wet snow here at the 8200 foot level before it rained out. Wind’s along the highway 395 corridor were nothing short of disastrous with gusts to 100mph.  The worst fire in my memory for the Eastern Slopes of the Sierra occurred in the Round Valley area up through Swall Meadows and Paradise Friday afternoon.  On behalf of all the Weather Dweebs, our harts go out to all of you during this horrible time.  Massive Power outages and communication failures developed from Douglas County in NV to the Inyo Mono county line. As of this time, cell service is still out for Verizon. Bridgeport also had its issues with SCE station burning down leaving Bridgeport without power.  I am sure that there are plenty other stories, related to the winds that gusted 60 to 100MPH Friday afternoon.

 

Back to the weather:

CRFC shows about 2.5 inches of water yet to come in the Yosemite area. So expect another 1 to 1.5 inches of water here in Mammoth on the east side. That means that the upper mountain could get another 12 to 18 inches above 9000 and up to the crest on top of what ever they got the past 24 hours. In that it rained up to 10,000 today no telling what the upper mountain received at this time.

This next system has some colder air in it toward the end. It is possible that we might end up with 3 to 6 inches at the 8000 foot level by Monday noon. The snow level is not likely to come down much until about midnight. So it all depends upon how fast the colder air gets in here. If it is quicker, then we’ll get more snow in town. Once again the upper elevations of town will have the most accumulations…..

I do not have any information on what the sierra crest actually picked up.

Beyond Monday we ridge up and warm up for a fair weather period for the next 6 to 10 days….

 

More Later……

 

The Dweeber…………………………:-)

 

It’s Almost ShowTime for “AR” event for CA…..Ready….Set….Dump…..Week 2 GFS has an “AR” Encore later in Feb for possible Fab February??

Friday AM:

Now it’s getting really interesting as HPC’s 5 Day QPF has gone though the roof painting 12+ inches of water over the Sierra Crest between Tonight and Monday Night.  In chatting with the lead at WSFORNO, the forecaster from last night’s shift, was of the opinion that the QPF is way over done.  However, with that said, the models did come in wetter over night further south, and a bit warmer too.  So the Snow Level will probably verify another 500 feet higher.  IE 8500 to 9000 on the average, with the SL varying up and down from there. The snow level will be lower with Sunday nights and Monday’s storm.

The latest CRFC QPF for Yosemite is close to 7.00 inches of water. If we use 7:1 that is close to 50 inches of snow over the crest storm total.  Additionally, like the Dweebs indicated in a previous discussion, odds are good that over the next 72 hours, Mammoth Pass will double the amount of water in the snowpack of the entire Winter/Fall; and…that with Mammoth Mt being likely to get between 3 and 4+ feet,of heavy wet snowfall, this is likely to ensure a long ski season for the Eastern Sierra’s, favored Resort!

 

PS: the CVSv2 for week 3 showed “AR” Redux between the 20th and 26th of February.  “Fab February” anyone?

 

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Like header says…..Ready-Set-Dump!  The Dweebs were thinking about the possibility that Mammoth Pass might receive in this one “AR” event as much water as it has received form the entire winter so far.  You never exactly know what you’re going to get when orographic’s come into play. This mornings CRFC showed about four and a third inches of water in this event by Monday. There is a reported 5.9 inches of water up on the pass. It is possible to double that with orographics.  Want to see some examples of orographic’s?   Check out this link and imagine where the Sierra is in relation to the upper flow.  The Dweebs call that the BIG SQUEEZE as the air is forced to rise natural to the Sierra.   See: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-162.04,14.31,293

 

More Later…………….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)