Archive for March, 2015

A Subtropical Upper jet to bring mainly light precipitation to the high country Wednesday…..Then a rather dirty ridge is expected to develop Friday and into the weekend allowing considerable high clouds and very mild temperatures……A remarkably strong MJO is developing over the Western Pacific the next week and is expected to propagate eastward toward Central Pacific….

Wednesday AM:

Light snow is currently falling in the Town of Mammoth. Snowfall amounts are expected to be in the inch or two range on the mountain with a trace expected in Town, mainly above 8K.

As far as the short and medium range forecast’s. All of the guidance indicates, drier than normal and warmer than normal conditions prevailing, beginning Thursday and continuing through early next week.  Highs this weekend will be in the low 60s while considerable high level cloudiness is expected at times. (Dirty Ridge)

Longer Range:

According to the CPC, there is not much support in the dynamical models for significant tropical moisture transport into California during the Weeks 2-4 time period. (Mid March to Early/Mid April) The CFS does indicate “some potential” for modest California wetness during Weeks 3 and 4, but the ECMWF maintains a dry signal.  Most of the tropical moisture is anticipated to remain over the northeastern Pacific; see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbPrecMonInd1.gif for the latest CFS March outlook.

Additionally, the model guidance supports above normal temperatures persisting through the end of March for California, which would not be supportive of any late season mountain snowfall, and would promote early melting of the little snowpack that exists.

Of note; the PDO came in at positive record levels again for the month of February. These are 115 year records dating back to 1900. With another robust Down welling event translating eastward across the Central and Eastern Pac, no doubt that the +PDO signal will not flip negative, anytime soon…

 

The Dweeber…………………………….:-)

 

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Lots going on with the Madden Julian Oscillation and potential future weather changes more on an inter-seasonal time scale or even climate time scale than anything else this morning. The Dweebs have been watching the forecast of a robust MJO that is forecasted to flare over the western pacific the next 10 days.  The forecasts in the some of the global models has been showing the standard deviation from normal, off the chart in phase 7 and progressive in many cases into phase space 8.  The Dweebs have been poo-pooing any serious effects for the CONUS from this tropical forcing, mainly because the statistical model has not shown any sync with this anomaly. The Dweebs looked at the statistical model this morning and its taken off.  So we got a real event that is going to have significant effects upon the CONUS in a couple of weeks, and possibly on a climate time scale I suspect. The MJOs lead time is often beyond week 2, so chances are,  it has not been reflected in the global models yet!  I will be attending a special webinar from the CPC this afternoon and will report tomorrow AM on the same.

Although unrelated, another robust Kelvin Wave is translating east with some of the core heat in the wave, sub-surface as high as +6C!  This appears to be another strong Kelvin Wave translating east, that will hit the Central American coast later this Spring and push anomalous warm water north along the Mexican coast, and eventually the west coast of the CONUS, including CA this Summer reinforcing the +PDO.    It is interesting to note that Kelvin Waves can jack start Warm ENSO events. Additionally, Strong MJO’s can also Jack start Warm ENSO events.   So there is something interesting going on and I suspect that it should be a very interesting day today at the CPC…..

 

The Dweeber………………………:-)

Upper High centered over Northern California today will remain in the Vicinity through Monday. Sunny skies, Clear Nights along with light winds are expected to continue….Cooler breezy weather to develop by Tuesday night into Wednesday with the chance of showers……Time to Spring Forward Saturday Night!

Saturday AM:

 

If you caught this mornings Sat Map, the big closed low NNE of the Big Island has tapped a plume of moisture from the ITCZ….  An Atmospheric River (AR) has been created…. What a waist, as it’s too bad it is not directed into CA!   SEE:  http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/bTPW/index.html

 

Discounting the short and medium range where there is still a slight chance of showers in the forecast the middle of next week;  It is not surprising this afternoon by the looks and recent trends of the ensembles of the ECMWF and GFS, that the CPC has gone warmer and drier than normal for the next 14 days.  They tell a story that is getting older by the year…..

SEE:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

and  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

PS  Don’t forget to spring forward an hour Saturday Night before retiring for the evening or it will be later then you think Sunday….

 

 

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Looking at the latest guidance this morning not much has changed forecast wise for the next 5 days except to adjust up the temps over the lower elevations of Eastern CA/Owens Valley the early to mid part of next week

The outlook still shows cooler cloudier weather with the chance of showers by the middle of next week as the present upper high gets dampened and shoved east by the westerlies. In that the upper jet remains well north of Mammoth, the air mass will be mild mid-week with higher snow levels for any shower activity. Model “trends” appear to be stronger now with the upper ridge over CA that following weekend. This occurs as shown by todays 12Z Friday run of the new higher res GFS T1534. Its deterministic run shows today, a trapped closed upper low near 155west. and a closed upper high centered over CA at the moment.   Upper heights weaken to the north over the GO/AK the next few days and the closed low progresses east. As lower Upper heights developed over the GOAK the upper jet strengthen and both flatted the west coast ridge and pushes parts of east next Wednesday.  This allows cooler wetter weather to develop over Northern CA northward, giving Mammoth mostly wind, cooling and a chance of orographic showers.  There appears to be two decisively different systems/streams out over the mid pacific later next week. The southern branch seems to have the greatest -(height anomaly).

The prind point here is that if the current GFS T1534 is correct,  the deepening of the southern system next Thursday near 150w to 140w will actually strengthen the upper ridge over the far west, wave length wise, and delay a significant system that next weekend of the 14th-16th, (if the new model run and trends continue).

Of interest is what is following the slow moving mid latitude low by the 16th.  It looks like that there is an extension of the East Asian Jet moving across the pacific. That may push the remains of the old low, into CA, beyond the 16th. It will be interesting to see how far east that upper EAJ jet gets. That following week the models show that upper jet has 200knots in its belly…..moving across the date line…..Hope it continues to be progressive…..

 

Again…as mentioned a few days ago…the idea of an atmospheric river is off the table for Central CA until further notice…..

 

The Dweeber……………………..:-)

Mammoth Mt Reports 10 to 16 inches Storm Total…..Cold California Trof to Begin Moving East Early Tuesday with an Upper Ridge Building in Mid week…..Thereafter…The Weather to remain fair through this Weekend…..

Thursday AM

The Global Models are having more difficulty with Pacific Pattern for later next week trying to bring in a decent system. The idea of an “AR” event seems now to be off the table for the time being as models struggle with a pattern shift next week. It does look like we will get some precipitation, however at this time it does not look like a major storm.   With that said, that could change. The Dweebs will have better visibility by this Sunday or Monday.

To add to the uncertainty, the MJO is forecasted by the NCEP models and EC to be quite strong in the Phase 7 then weaken into phase 8 region. That is the breeding phases for an “AR” event. So while the global models struggle, there is a bias for the AR because of the Amplitude of the MJO in the right phase spaces.   Do not be surprised over the next week to 10 days, that the global models flip back to the AR scenario again.  SEE: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif

 

The Dweeber……..

 

Wednesday AM:

This was a Cold Morning in the high country with lows any ware from the low single digits to as cold as -12 at Anchorite, NV near Bodie.  A cold dry air mass continues to spill south at 500MB over the Great Basin while the forecast shows upper ridging building in the next few days.  This all adds up to a warming trend that will be most sensibly felt Thursday through Sunday. Highs at 8000 ft are expected near 60 for Sunday and Monday next week. Night time lows will still be cold the next few night but not as cold for the upper elevations. By Saturday and Sunday lows will range in the upper 20s to low 30s at 8000 ft. The air mass will become inverted by Saturday near 8000 feet at night, and freezing level will continue to rise this week….

The weather looks fair through Tuesday but expect increasing winds aloft Tuesday leading to the chance of a storm Wednesday or Thursday next week.

The Dweebs are still watching for the possibility of an AR event later next week as the ECMWF control is all over it.  The GFS did its dance too last night run,  but was not as convincing. Usually, the European is the better model for longer range as a rule…..So the GFS may snap back into agreement. As mentioned the past day or so, the MJO is lending support to an West Coast AR event week two, extending well on shore to the Sierra Crest…. So the Dweebs are watching and eagerly waiting to see what happens as we get closer time wise….toward the 15th of March.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)

 

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Tuesday Noon:

 

Hello Fellow Dweebs…..I do not think I have ever addressed the reader’s as such. However, if you read this blog even weekly, I believe you’re a Dweeb!   If you have been reading it for 10 years…..Your in serious trouble!   😉 October this year will be my 35th anniversary of broadcasting weather for the Eastern Sierra, beginning with KMMT and then KIBS which I still to this day broadcast live from my home 5 to 6 days a week.  Getting to the point….If some one out there would like to sponsor me to do the weather by-weekly on the Mammoth Cable Channel 12,  txt Dan McConnell at 760 937-2043 to chat about it. It would be helpful even through the end of April.  Dan says it costs $300.00 a month and includes a video Ad for your business. Txt him if your interested…..I am happy to do it for free…. Please support Dan, who has been an actively video photographing Mammoth and many of its events since 1979…..

Weather Discussion:

Although it will be warmer through this weeks end, there are several important changes that will take place before the end of March that may bring a lot of moisture to the eastern sierra.  The climate weekly models have been touting some kind of a Tropical or AR event for the west coast for a couple of weeks now.  It is getting closer in time, and although not an official forecast, I have to say there are some interesting curiosities that are getting closer in time that one has to start taking a bit more seriously.   Why? One reason is because not only has the GFS been touting a Possible AR event, but the ECMWF is showing it now as well.  Additionally, there is MJO support as well over the next two weeks.  If it was not for the MJO support, I would not be all that excited about the future, but its strong and impressive.   Here are some Anomalies: The following is the CFS V2, 500 MB heights Anomaly and then Precip for weeks 1 and 2 See the confluence for the negative height anomaly confluent with the ‘AR”  That is serious if it occurs. This is for the period March 10 through the 16th .

See: 1. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20150302.z500.gif

2. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20150302.NA.gif Here is the progression for Weeks 3 and 4.

3. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20150302.NA.gif

At the moment we’ll just have to wait and see how everything comes together…….No Forecast, Just looking outward….

The Dweeber………………………………:-) ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

 

Great Storm…over all total snowfall totals were very close to earlier predictions……The 2nd half of the week will warm up into the 50s by Thursday or Friday…with low 70s in the Owens Valley this weekend….There will be a few hard freezes the next two nights in the high country….. In that the PDO shifted to the positive phase last year, the Dweebs were trying to come up with some of the benefits of a positive PDO  “The Warm Phase of the PDO” They are as follows: 1. A much shorter June Gloom Season for Southern CA. IE earlier, or better coastal weather. 2. Winters are warmer.  More warm winter days in Southern Ca 3. Much better deep-sea fishing. You do not have to go out so far to catch great Tuna and other species normally found much further south. 4. Much more comfortable for Swimming and Surfing as the water is much warmer. As a note; The warmer waters along the west coast are sometimes confused with El Nino. What the coastal waters off Southern CA may have been experiencing, ( and I do not know for sure if it did qualify), was a “California Nino”. Yes, there is such an animal. but it is not the warm phase of ENSO!

SEE: http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140425/srep04801/full/srep04801.html Longer Range: I see the “Possibility” of a true Pineapple Connection in our future. Not the pseudo one we had in the month of February.  This one maybe attached to a Kona Low which can be much wetter and has the potential of the confluence of a nice Eastern G-O-AK Trof.  This potential “AR” has even has been toying with the inter-seasonal models in February for the month of March.   This will be the focus late this week and into the next for CA.  Although it may or may not happen, the CFSv2 forecast of Weekly Climate Anomalies is seeing something major coming out of the Tropics for the West Coast later this month……   The Dweeber…………………………..:-)