Colder Weather Ahead With Snowfall in Our Future……Its official…..The Winter of 2014-2015 is Driest on record…..
Thursday April 2, 2015
Posted at 9:19 am by Howard
Totals 14.5 inches at Mammoth Weather.com at the 8200 foot level and 18 to 24 inches on Mammoth Mt. Including the crest.
Tuesday PM 11:00PM
As mentioned in my afternoon report below, snowfall continues to pile up due to the nature of this storm and the cold pool aloft. Heavy convective snow showers have increased accumulations to 18 inches at 11:00PM at the Main Lodge. At Mammoth Weather.com. 14.5 inches has fallen and it is estimated that a good foot has fallen in town. Snow will continue to fall but gradually diminish after Midnight as the cold pool shifts east through the Great Basin. Another inch or two is still possible the rest of the night. Tallies in the Morning here at mammothweather.com…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
Tuesday PM 2:45pm
We are doing well here in Mammoth with about 8 inches here in town. Snowfall is S+ and so 1 to 2 inches an hour falls are occurring. Mammoth Mt has picked up 12 inches at the Main Lodge with .75 inches of water. We still have a way to go and so the Dweebs will jack up total amounts possible up to a foot now in town by late tonight and 15 to 20 inches over Mammoth Mt. The tricky part is that although there will be a break later this afternoon, there are some convective bands within the cold pool that will come through the sierra tonight. If a band happens to come through Mammoth Lakes, 2 inches per hour snowfalls could occur over night.
Quick Tuesday AM Update:
Although our storm is moving a little slower than earlier thought. The HRRR model (Rapid refresh model) has the front, currently climbing the sierra and should begin to bring some light snowfall to the Crest “around” 9:00AM. Thereafter, between 9:00am and 10:00 AM the leading portion of the front will push east to near highway 395. Expect snowfall to continue though mid to late afternoon…. There may be a break later this afternoon in the precip….The cold pool moves in tonight and so the snowfall will become more showery in nature with convective showers early and even the chance of some thunder snow this evening. Expect amounts in the 4 to 8 inch range in town with about 12 inches over the upper elevations by Wednesday AM. Expect high temperatures in town today in the mid 30s with temps some 10 degrees colder on the Mountain. Lows tonight in the teens…
The weather will become fair by Thursday with milder temperatures. Seasonal temperatures will prevail this weekend (50s) There may be some wind over the upper elevations over the weekend…
The next weather system will be about Tuesday or Wednesday next week…..That one looks especially cold and showery….
Quick Update Monday AM:
Everything on track for a moderate precipitation producer. No attached “AR” to tap into, however the eastern pacific is plenty warm and I would imagine that evaporation rates are extra special these days because of the warm EP. Back to the current system…..We did get the flip in the PNA as expected by the MJO in phase 3. So here we are with the first cold trof of this new season….or this year? The upper jet favors Mono County and so Mono will get the bulk of the snowfall over the crest. CRFC has about 1.04 for Yosemite. The GFS has about an inch as well. So given 700MB temps, good orographic’s and some decent UVM, expect somewhere between 10 and 15 inches for Mammoth Mt. and some 4 to 8 inches in town. It will be blustery Tuesday with highs in the 20s on Mammoth Mt and mid 30s in town.
It will remain showery Tuesday night possibly Wednesday afternoon as 700mb winds back a bit from the NE during the PM for a little upslope. Thursday, will be warmer sensibly with much more warming coming in Friday into Sunday. There appears to be a split in the flow that allows a small low to come into the west coast about Ensenada Monday. That appears to be too far south for Mammoth, but may bring the chance of showers to Southern CA, early next week. High temps will climb from the mid 30s on Tuesday, to well into the 50s over the weekend, Winds with the split flow over the weekend look pretty light…..
Next chance of precipitation later next week….
Boy! What a Kelvin Wave! Now surfacing along the equator of the Central American coast. The whole wave is slowly rising with the nose of the wave 1st. The Nino 1+2 region spiking an anomalous 1.5C The Kelvin Wave subsurface temps are better then +6C!! The Dweebs expect the anomalous sub surface waters to continue rising and warming the Nino Basin…. A surge of warmth from the south is also possible over the eastern pacific…this all leads to a good chance of a moderate El Nino by Summers end….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
The 2nd dry WX system, in a series of weather systems, has managed to bring 20 to 25 degrees of cooling to our region as compared to high temps earlier in the week. Snow Showers this morning will lead to clearing this afternoon……No significant accumulations expected…There are two distinct future weather systems that are both stronger and deeper than the ones that came through bringing cooling and breeze to our region the past few days.
Sensibly, it will be colder today with highs in the mid 40s near the village. However, it will be milder Friday into Saturday as weak short wave ridging builds over the area. On Sunday it will be breezy to windy and colder with increasing clouds and the possibility of some light snowfall developing from the next system. The timing appears to be later Sunday afternoon and into Sunday Night as well as Monday AM. Amounts look light, with less than 6 inches over the crest and possibly an inch or two at the village by Monday AM. Sunday will be cold with highs in the upper 30s!
It is the following system that is of most interest with a stronger and a more dynamic upper jet moving into Central CA. There appears to be the possibility of a foot over the upper elevations and some 3 to 6 inches in the Town of Mammoth, Tuesday into Tuesday night. The ECMWF is wetter than the GFS. Well have to see how they handle the QPF in the coming days. Both models show yet another system moving toward our area, prior to or early the following weekend. Although the new improved ECMWF and GFS handle it differently…..
April does look more unsettled from a climate time frame with more weather systems bringing the chance of more water to our parched region…….
The DWP snow survey was completed yesterday April 1st. It is as dismal as it has ever been historically. This is “The driest winter on record” as reported by DWP. The manual measurements taken yesterday at Mammoth Pass showed a water content of 1.4 inches or 3% of the April 1st norm of 43.5 inches of water in the snow. Mammoth Lakes itself had 0 and so 0% of normal. The Minarets 2 site had an 1 inch. So the Mammoth Lakes Area averaged .8 inches or 3% of normal. The average of all snow courses south to Cotton Wood Lakes, down though the Southern Sierra was not much better, with an average of 4% of normal over-all.
NASA has indicated that this particular 4 year drought is a once in a 1000 year event because of its severity.
The Dweebs just had a look at the updated Kelvin Wave that’s axis is near the Date Line. In the front of the Kelvin Wave you have down welling of Warm Sea Surface temperatures and in the rear you have upwelling of colder SSTs rising to the surface. The Sub Surface SSTA are greater than +6C! This is a magnificent KW that will warm the Nino Basin later this Spring and into the Summer. It will also push warmer water up north through the eastern pacific and result in warmer SSTA anomalies along the west coast. It will be interesting to see how the +PDO reacts this summer, by watching that teleconnection indice this Summer. I will report monthly on that throughout the year.
This KW will most likely result in enhanced possibilities for the return of El Nino later this Summer and Fall. However, once again like last year, will there be “carry-through” into the next winter or, will it end up being another Modoki Event with a split flow pattern and more Eastern Pacific Blocking. No one knows….Even the “Shadow”doesn’t know this one…… For you young folks that do not know who the Shadow is….Ask your parents…..if they do not know, ask your grand parents……or just Google it!
Dr. Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)