Roasty Toasty Weekend Saturday with Strong Zephyr Sunday PM….Dry for the Sierra until Further Notice……MJO Phase Space is showing a lot of Amplitude over the next few weeks……Could be sign of a Cool Down by Mid June…..
Friday May 29, 2015
Posted at 10:57 am by Howard
Warming trend in process with highs the next few day in the 70s in Mammoth. A short wave of low pressure aloft will kick the Mono Zephyr in high gear Sunday and so it will become very breezy locally. These winds will blow into the night Sunday and possibly Monday as well. Lows temps over the weekend will be in the 40s.
Interesting News From the CPC:
The Enhanced Convection from El Nino over the Eastern Pacific and Moisture from this Enhanced Pacific convection interacted with the extratropical circulation in the northern hemisphere and resulted in enhanced precipitation across the southern continental U.S. resulting in flooding rains in Texas and Oklahoma.
5/11 to 5/17
San Diego was 800% of Normal; SW AZ as well.
5/19 to 5/25
Precipitation was between 600% and 800% of Normal over the White Mts to the east of Mammoth Lakes near the CA/NV Border.
Want to see real a ENSO coupled index?
Check out the SOI: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png
Anything -10 or below is a sign of significant higher pressure and colder water near Northern Australia northward. Strongest convection is now developing over the central and eastern tropical pacific and the Walker Pump has significantly weakened or has reversed direction due to the location of the eastward shifted Tropical Convection.
In the link below, you can see an illustration that shows the Walker Pump and what happens when anomalous warm water shifts east into equatorial eastern pacific. The strongest convective area on earth, “The Maritime Continent”, then plays 2nd fiddle to the Eastern Pacific because the ocean sea surface waters North of Australia and Indonesia cool. Thus it looses it dominance, with a severely weakened trade wind system. The surface air over the colder SST is more dense and of higher pressure and flows toward the Warmest SSTs or area of lower surface pressure…. Thus the reversal of the trades from east to west to a west to east direction. This is classic strong El Nino action in the making….
Now that you understand the Walker Pump System…..Click on the link below and watch the increasing warmth of the SSTs along and north of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific and then watch what happens to the waters north of Australia and throughout Indonesia. Run the loop and watch both the time-lapse from the beginning of 2015 to just a few days ago. You will see the blue or colder water develop north of Australia and Indonesia. The cold water and resulting wind system will act to intensify the El Nino now in place over the Summer and Fall of this year…. SEE: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim.html
The Dweebs have been following the MJO RMM chart:
Have been following the MJO phase space the past few days. It is interesting to note the forecast spike that has been showing up recently for the next two forecasted weeks as it moves through the Indian Ocean. According to the CPC last Tuesday, the spike in convection is probably not a Canonical Madden Julian Oscillation RMM signal. Rather something more related to ENSO and Kelvin waves. There are several KW’s propagating around the globe now. One that has left the eastern tropical pacific and is near Africa or already into the Indian Ocean. The forecasted rise in convection is less likely due to Canonical MJO because the MJO is usually very weak during the Summer months. So it may be more related to low frequency wave systems like ENSO or KW’s. What ever it is….The rise in the RMM chart is very-very interesting!
I will have an update on the MJO RMM next Wednesday….. 😎