Archive for June, 2015
Thunderstorm Action will continue this afternoon….with less action wednesday then increasing thunderstorm’s Thursday and Friday…..MJO rapidly intensifying over West Pac
Tuesday June 30, 2015
Posted at 9:41 am by Howard
As indicated earlier, thunderstorm action will be suppressed this afternoon. Much of the action will be over the southern sierra due to the configuration of the upper high. Very late this afternoon or early evening odds will increase somewhat. Better odds Thursday and Friday…
Check out the BMOM forecast; the Sigma is off the chart! That is not just convection associated with the MJO. It is a combination of that plus all the tropical convection and OLR associated with several tropical storms over the western pacific adding to the MJO to give you this!: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/bomm.shtml
Today weather shows a lot of high clouds…..
A moist SE flow will continue with another round of afternoon and evening Thunderstorms expected Tuesday. Some localized areas of heavy rain possible. The upper flow backs more from the east Wednesday and so it will be a bit drier with less thunderstorm action. Thursday into Friday will be both warmer with an increasing threat of Thunderstorms. Highs in Mammoth today will be warmer. So expect low 80s…..Expect warmer temps Wednesday into Thursday….Overnight lows again near 50.
The outlook for the holiday weekend is for a chance of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms with highs in the mid 80s. low in the upper 40s.
MJO rapidly intensifying over Western pacific. Westerly wind burst is in process as twin Cyclones work together on each side of the equator…..
Major Westerly Wind Burst in process…SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/tlonhov_u850.shtml
This will be intensified by the two current Tropical Storms on each side of the Equator. Just like back in March!
SEE: Open this link then drag the globe to the right. Check out the two Cyclones at 160E just above and below the equator. This is adding to the strong westerly winds bursts and will combine with KW to add more fuel to the ENSO fire later…. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-165.80,3.06,373
A Fire Weather Watch is Hoisted for the Sierra of Mono County because of the possibility of Dry Lightening Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening…..Wetter Storms are possible Later Sunday afternoon…..MJO is Amping as it goes into the Western Pacific….There will be a pattern change due to this action the week following July Fourth…But it may not effect the far southwest.
Saturday June 27, 2015
Posted at 10:39 am by Howard
A few sprinkles occurred yesterday afternoon in Mammoth Lakes. The most important thing that happened was that air mass modification occurred, as evidenced by 1. Dew points have risen from the mid 30s yesterday to the mid 40s this AM and Precipitable water has jumped up in our area up to about 3/4 of an inch. Looking at the SPC this AM, there is an 850MB-250MB convergence/divergence couplet over the Northern Owens Valley at this time. Also, radar is showing light precipitation over the Northern Owens Valley. This may not be reaching the ground yet. The HRRR rapid refresh model has rainfall for our area developing later this morning and increasing this afternoon. Thunderstorms and rain showers, some of which may be locally heavy at times are possible later this afternoon. High temps will be cooler today with upper 70s more likely than 80s. The fetch of monsoon moisture along with the combination of air mass modification and (couplet’s of upper divergence and surface convergence) will continue through tomorrow, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. There may be a break Tuesday according to the new 12z Sunday WRF model….
As previously mentioned in the past two discussion’s…. MJO induced retrogression will occur later next week.
1. The First change that will happen is that the continental high will get pulled west over North Central CA and so expect another heat wave to develop this coming Wednesday into Friday. Highs may reach into the upper 80s in Mammoth Lakes by Thursday/Friday. In Bishop between 105 and 109 by Thursday thru Saturday. With the core of the upper high so close to us, daytime convection may be capped…will have wait to see.
By the way, Bishop broke another high temperature record Saturday of 106 breaking the old record of 105 set back in 2013. One more thing….There were 5 days in a row in 2013, between 6-27-2013 and 7-1-2013 that were records for Bishop. Although the next few day will be a bit cooler due to the increase in monsoon moisture, it may still remain in the low 100s. However, by Thursday, highs will be near record levels again.
Back to retrogression of the long wave upper ridge; this change is forecasted by all global models out to 145 west by early the following week. The models are struggling with the strength of the Continental High in its western location….. If the upper high remains strong enough, it will continue to be located west of the 4 corners area. If the upper trof is stronger as it digs south the continental high will be displaced east of the four corners area. The latter would result in a long wave trof off the west coast later the following week. If the latter happened…A dry SW flow would develop leading to a dry breezy pattern, for the Central Sierra with temps a bit cooler like upper 70s. If the upper southwest high wins out, then we’ll stay very warm with the chance of TSRWs through the period. Will update on this next week.
The only other concern is that the MJOs convective envelope will be well established in the eastern tropical pacific by the Fourth of July and that following week. It will no doubt be busy modulating tropical convection as it “Constructively Interferes” with the El Nino Base state, the week following the 4th of July. If by chance, we do get a long wave trof that sets up in the right spot over the Eastern Pacific, it may draw up one of the tropical systems and entrain it in the upper flow. Chances are best that any of that would benefit the desert southwest more than Southern CA, but stranger things have happened in the past. It is important to note that the MJO that is currently strengthening in Phase 6 is possibly in record territory for July with a sigma of close to +4 according to the ECMM. That is nearly at the end of the scale as a deviation from normal. What this may also mean is for the possibility of another strong westerly wind burst along the equator, over the western or central pacific. Can you imagine injecting more warm water into the Nino Basin 150 Meters under the surface that is already +5C to +6C?
Like the Dweebs said earlier….This is getting very scary! 😈
In the meantime, enjoy the thunderstorms the next two days and hope that no new fire starts occur today or Monday.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………..:-)
Saturday AM Update:
Expect Low to mid 80s to continue at resort levels this weekend with over night lows in the low 50s….Expect the addition of high cloudiness today Saturday with scattered high based thunderstorm’s later this afternoon. This is due to the channeling of high level moisture between the continental high to the east and an upper low to the west. The upper low is forecasted to shift north along the coast through the weekend eventually being absorbed by the westerlies early next week. Through the process, there is the possibility of nocturnal convection as the models show good 250MB divergence aloft Sunday afternoon over Mono County and at night over the west side of the sierra. Should this verify another 50 miles east we would have rain Sunday night. On the topic of divergence aloft, the new 12z run of the WRF shows 250 upper divergence over Mono County later this afternoon into the early evening hours as well as Sunday afternoon into that evening. As Sunday will be more moist, that afternoon and evening seems to be the best chance of wetting rainfall. The upper flow does back a bit from the southwest Monday. Not too sure if that will do much to lessen the chance for thunder. However, it quickly backs from the SSE by this coming Tuesday/Wednesday.
Outlook: Lots going on in this El Nino Summer.
Once again the global models bring significant retrogression to the Hemi pattern going into the holiday weekend. This acts first to retrograde the continental high to over Eastern CA Thursday and Friday for hot weather, the 2nd and 3rd of July, then weakens it a bit as the long wave upper high both retrogrades and redevelops and AMPS at 145west. This action will dig a strong short wave trof along 125west to the Pacific NW. In the process it picks up a small upper low in the mid latitudes, early that following week. Although the Dweebs will have to keep a eye on this anomalous pattern for the week just following the Fourth of July Holiday, it is unlikely that this trof will make it far enough south to bring weather to the high country. This is because the Continental high is so strong and acts to block it. However, at the same time we have a very unusual set up over the western pacific with a very strong MJO developing the next 7 days. This MJO no doubt to the Dweebs, is responsible for the retrogression forecasted in the westerlies and the Pacific NW trof the 5th and 6th of July. Additionally, this MJO as expected, has assisted in a major crash in the SOI to -50 yesterday and -41 today. So effectively the crash of the SOI weakening the easterlies has created a better environment for convection over the western pacific while the MJO enhances Upper Divergence over the western pacific tropics at the same time. Expect an enhanced state for the development of major typhoon action over the western pacific the next 2 weeks. PS. With a little luck there may be another strong westerly wind burst over the next week as a result…We’ll see.
All the global models now have the development of a tropical wave moving out of the ITCZ at this time as the convective envelope of the MJO moves into that area. The forecast is for the storm to move NW toward the Northern Mariana Islands by the Fourth Of July… This typhoon by then will continue to strengthen the following week. Another Tropical Storm will follow on its heals for week two. Now if these storms constructively phase with the westerlies late week 2, we’ll have another issue to deal with along the west coast later, but that is not in the long range forecast. The storms seem to be headed for the China Mainland.
Tropical Eastern Pacific:
The Convective Envelope of the MJO will move into the tropical central and eastern pacific week 2 and into Week 3. Above medium precip is forecasted to extend as far east as 110West. Tropical storm action will be enhanced for both the central and eastern tropical pacific week 2 and 3. As mentioned earlier, this may also enhance the SW monsoon the second week of July.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)
Very warm weather to continue for the Eastern Sierra with near record highs by Friday…..Upper Dynamics along with the influx of Monsoon Moisture will Juice up our local Air Mass leading to an increasing chance of thunderstorms this weekend….The Outlook for next week is much of the same…..
Wednesday June 24, 2015
Posted at 12:34 pm by Howard
The CPC this AM gave a nice discussion in regards to the MJO, the Current Kelvin Wave and ENSO:
Here are the important points of interest:
1. A strong kelvin wave is currently out ahead of the position of the MJO’s convective envelope and interacting with the EL Nino Base state. Enhanced tropical convection is occurring south and a bit west of Hawaii near the EQ.
2. MJO is destructively interfering with the ENSO base state, but that will soon change as the convective state shifts east.
3. The Nose of the KV is located about 125west and still adding heat to the Nino Basin.
1. The Convective state of the MJO will shift east to the eastern part of the Maritime continent with tropical storms forming their over the next 7 days. That area will shift east week 2, for the tropical longitudes between Central Micronesia and east to just beyond the Big Island of Hawaii. Expect tropical storms and typhoons to develop in that area during those times. IE north of the EQ moving west.
2. During the later part of week 2 and into week 3 (around the Fourth of July holiday or just beyond the Fourth, the MJO will constructively interfere with the ENSO state over the Eastern Pacific for an enhanced state for Hurricane’s and tropical storms over the tropical Eastern Pacific, eventually leading to enhance the Southwest Monsoon early the following week of July 4th. This may or may not effect CA as retrogression of the Long wave may send most of the Monsoon moisture further east.
Temperature’s continue about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year with highs over Mammoth in the Mid 80s. Nights will be most comfortable for those that sleep with the windows wide open…Screens included. Some of the summertime bugs are now out but the Bats in the evening are busy getting a mouthful! 😉
I expect a bit warmer weather into the early weekend before Thunderstorms and airmass modification leads to cooler afternoon highs. Wetter storms are possible Sunday into Tuesday next week, with the pattern lasting right into and through the 4th of July weekend!
The Details: Tomorrow Thursday, the Continental Subtropical high redevelops over the desert southwest again, then bubbles up over Utah and NV. This feature will work in tandem with an upper low forming more from a “Coll” ….Thursday into Friday. The upper flow begins to be channeled up into CA from the subtropics.
Over time….The upper continental high becomes negative tilt with both moisture transport as well as upper divergence. They will work together to bring wetter storms into the Sierra, Sunday….through Wednesday. Afternoon and evening thunderstorm’s will likely continue well into next week. High temps in Mammoth will occur earlier in the day next week due to more afternoon clouds, higher dew points and Scattered Thunderstorms. Lows at night will be mostly in the 50s, next week.
Post July 4th:
The Western Hemispheric pattern goes into retrogression around the 4th of July. The new 12Z June 24th deterministic EC retrogrades the upper high from the pacific NW out to about 140west. The EC ensemble”s do not make that much of it.. The GFS ensembles doesn’t do much with it either. In fact the GFS builds back the Continental high that week. The ECMWF deterministic, tries to pull down an inside side slider over the Northern Rockies or Northern Great Basin.
With as strong as the Continental high is, I have serious doubts that it will affect California or most of NV. But still…..The big question for the week following July 4th, deals with this possible retrogression and how the models will handle it. Also what role if any, where all that subtropical moisture will go, as MJO modulates the southwest monsoon at that time.
As per past discussions, The Dweebs are watching the location of the MJO’s convective state in blue as it moves from the Maritime Continent, then into the western pacific. Thereafter, it shifts east toward the dateline then Eastern Pacific, all in a 2 to 3 week period.
The core of the Blue is the area with the most intense OLR or the best convection. That area, early next week, will create a large area of upper divergence over the tropical western pacific and increase chance of tropical storms and possible typhoons over the Western Pacific. Eventually it will shift to the Eastern Pacific by the end of next week.
The enhanced convective state of the MJO over EL NINO creates “constructive interference” in the MJO signal. However, the term “Constructive” is what is most significant in the terminology, as the enhanced convection from El Nino combined with the upper divergent state of the MJO leads to a large area of very warm and saturated air mass over the eastern pacific tropics. The Dweebs would expect the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes spun up from the ITCZ and eventually an enhanced monsoon to develop around or the week following the Fourth of July weekend. The global models this morning showed a rather strong easterly wave tracking across MX.
Temperature forecast: Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Sat Sunday Monday
Mammoth Lakes: 49/84 49/84 50/85 51/86 54/87 56/85 55/84
Bishop: 54/102 55/102 65/103 69/105 70/108 70/104 72/102