Thunderstorms Rumble with Marble Sized Hail Today…..Rare for July closed low making landfall over Central CA Wednesday…..More rain to Come especially Thursday then drying tend into the weekend…..MJO now at dateline moving east and weakening…..But not before Cranking up the East Pac Hurricane Season!
Tuesday July 7, 2015
Posted at 1:55 pm by Howard
Some lingering convection over Mono County brought a few showers and a Beautiful Rainbow in town.
ENSO now most likely driving the +PDO as the new update shows it strengthening again…
Weather outlook shows a slow warming trend with still the slight chance of a few isolated thunderstorms Sunday.
High temps in the low to mid 70s Sunday and Monday climbing to near 80 by Thursday….thus Summer weather returns…
Platinum Powder El Nino Update to be released Monday…
Rainfall totals have been over 1/2 inch the past 24 hours as the final shoe dropped and the main upper low came on shore late last night. Nocturnal storms developed as expected, early this morning with thunderstorms that began at about 4:30AM. The upper center is still over Central Ca today and so rain showers and isolated thunderstorm’s will be around most of the day today with snow showers above 11,200ft. However the heavy convective situation we had yesterday is not there anymore because it is both cooler with much less sunshine. Thus precipitation will be more showery in nature and although there may be some areas of heavy rain, it will be in those areas that are exposed to more sunshine today.
By tomorrow Friday will be sunnier. So although dynamical forcing will not be as strong, we will have more sunshine. Thus the likelihood of thunderstorms will increase again Friday just because of that added convective element. A drier air mass moves into our region Saturday as well as more of an upper convergent atmosphere. Shower activity will be much more isolated. Expect dry weather Sunday through a good part of next week with more seasonal temps by Wednesday.
From the CPC:
Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring 2016.
Comment from the Dweebs……You can now pretty much go to the bank on this one snowfall wise with the likelihood of at least a normal to quite possibly an above normal winter…. The Dweebs will continue to follow the events and report any changes either way here at the Dweeb report. I will have a special report to my Platinum Powder email subscribers this week….. PS, if you have signed up for the Platinum Powder Alert before, please do not subscribe again. You are in the system….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
Wednesday AM: 8:30AM Update:
The National weather service has a flash flood watch for Mono County beginning at 10:00am this AM. So expect the possibility of heavy rain developing again today with small marble sized hail.
Possibly of further importance….the storms main area was over the eastern sections of town yesterday and so western sections of town did not pick up any rain. The latest HRRR model shows the storms firing up over the crest today and shifting NNE; so the back country this afternoon is more susceptible to lighting, hail and heavy rain, VS yesterday as it was mostly eastern sections of our city limits. An upper level low comes in tonight and so the rain may continue on and off all night tonight and into Thursday. The next 36 hours should be the wettest. We will begin to dry out Friday with just a chance of rain and a sight chance of rain Saturday. It will be fair, warmer and dry Sunday through Tuesday with highs back into the 70s.
Very slow moving Thunderstorms are dropping heaving rain and hail on Mammoth Lakes. Another report was that a TSRW stalled over Montgomery Pass and dumped a lot of rain today as well. Clouds will continue to build with more heavy rain possible, shifting east later this evening….
A Rare upper closed low is moving toward the central coast today. More potential for heavy rain, especially Wednesday/night through Thursday night. There is even a slight chance of a dusting at and above 11,000 feet Thursday afternoon and evening. On Thursday, it may just end up a rain event. Once this system moves east by Friday AM, drying trend to develop through the weekend. Expect warmer temps Saturday through Monday. But not until afternoon highs peak out in the upper 50s on Thursday! That’s 20 degrees below normal!
The convective envelope of MJO is shifting into the eastern pacific this week. It is likely that the eastern pacific will have a series of Hurricanes beginning around this weekend and continuing through the 3rd week of July. This is significant for the deserts and even parts of CA as the position of the continental high will most likely divert much of the moisture into AZ, NV and CA in the weeks to come. San Diego has had a very unusual late spring and Summer so far for rainfall. It’s possible they may get some more…
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)