A dry upper Trof over the west coast this morning will continue last nights drying trend….with another transitory dry Trof for the weekend continuing the trend….Weather to turn hot prior to the Bluesapalooza Fest…………….
Thursday July 23, 2015
Posted at 10:15 am by Howard
The latest Meso-Scale analysis showed no 850/250mb couplets over Mono County. Precipitable water was down to .6 over Mammoth and outside of the Rt Rear entry region over Northern Inyo…Stability indices have increased to +1 with +2 just to the west of the crest. All this adds up to a day of very weak forcing for Mono County with the best chance of isolated thunder over the Southern Sierra and the White Mts of Mono County near the NV boarder. By Friday, conditions will be totally unfavorable for any TSRWs over our region.
So ends another period of thunderstorms in what has became a famous Wet Rainy Mammoth Summer prior to the El Nino year of 2015/2016. Drier weather is now expected through next Wednesday.
Current synoptic scale weather is highlighted by a west coast trof at 500MB that is ushering in drier air aloft as well as at the mixing level. The upper trof will also be responsible for a stronger afternoon and early evening Zephyr with gusts to 30MPH during the late afternoon hours. The Zephyr will become more moderate Sunday afternoon as the deserts heat up later in the weekend. With a very dry air mass expected this weekend, night time lows will dip into the 30s in some areas.
The Dweebs are expecting the Continental upper high to retrograde to the west again and build into California. If the Upper High is centered over the state, then it will be just hot with afternoon clouds and highs in the mid 80s in Mammoth, and 105+ in Bishop. If the position shifts a bit east a little later in the week, SE flow could develop with an increasing chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm’s. This pattern is more typical for early August with Monsoon flow. Most likely, any showers developing would dissipate during the late afternoon hours. As of this time, it is too soon to know how extensive the Thunderstorm pattern will be for the Bluesa weekend. The Dweebs will keep you informed right here at the Dweeb Report.
In the meantime…..Enjoy the great weekend this weekend as Mammoth Best BBQ Recipe’s are up for the challenge!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)
Outlook Updated: 7/24/15
Both GFS and ECMWF show an increase in Monsoon moisture beginning a week from today into the following week for widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm’s….