Archive for August, 2015
Smokey skies to give way early Saturday afternoon to clearing as a Strong Trof for late August ushers in strong gusty SW winds and cooler temps….
Friday August 28, 2015
Posted at 11:29 am by Howard
Today Friday we had southerly flow which brought smoke north from the Rough Fire into Mammoth Lakes.
A strong for August upper trof and cold front will drive though the Eastern Sierra Saturday. Once the stronger winds develop Saturday, smoke for the Rough Fire should become shunted more to our south crossing the Owens Valley into western NV. More WSW flow is expected Sunday. This still keeps much of the smoke to our south.
Of note…the Pattern out over the North Pacific is anomalously strong for late August and should continue right on into September as Hurricanes and Typhoons phase with the westerlies in either a constructive or destructive manner. The large-scale long wave Trof developing of the Pacific NW will reload and grow stronger next week bringing another round of strong winds during the 2nd half of next week. Back packers stay tuned on that one for the end of the week…….. Daytime highs will cool to upper 60s and low 70s at resort areas with nighttime lows in the 30s in some areas Sunday night. The smoke forecast longer range has a lot to do with how contained the rough fire becomes over the weekend. Saturdays forecast looks pretty windy with gusts to 55MPH in the windiest areas. Blowing dust advisory is out for travelers on Saturday.
Of note…..it will be snowing in the British Columbia Coastal Mts…..next week….
Cooling promised for next week looks delayed until weeks end as 4-Corners high too strong…..Seasonal temps expected with breezier weather much later next week….
Saturday August 22, 2015
Posted at 5:42 pm by Howard
So far…all the tropical storms are forming well west of Mexico and are traveling from East to West within the Easterlies. This pattern is expected to continue for the next week or two. So at this particular time, any hurricanes developing in the deep tropics will not likely be a player in CA weather. The only caveat is that it is possible that a system over the northern tropics west of Cabo could spin up and be caught up in the developing long wave eastern pacific trough.
Upper North Pacific Pattern:
Speaking of the Eastern Pacific Trof….The developing western hemispheric pattern is becoming unusually amplified for this time of the year. This is due to the tropical storms forming over the El Nino related warm waters near the Dateline and east… then re-curving north east of Japan. Remnant’s of these Tropical Storms will continue to keep a rather amped pattern within the westerlies through the end of the first week of September. It is possible that one of the central pacific hurricanes might phase with an already amped pattern driving the upper long wave ridge north of Hawaii well into Alaska and north more like October weather.
The present forecast is one that trends the weather over CA to a dry SW flow with below normal temps and breezy to at times to windy weather next week. If the timing is right, and one of these central pacific TS phases with the westerlies in an already amped pattern, that could drive an unusually cold trof into the sierra around or just after the weekend of the 5th of September. Like the Dweebs have said…the late Summer and Fall are going to be very interesting this year with El Nino.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)
Lite SSW flow aloft will continue for the next couple of days and so will the smoke and haze due to the Rough fire to the west of, between Independence and Aberdeen. By Thursday we may get a little relief depending upon how quickly the Eastern Pacific Digging Trof gets in here. No doubt Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be smoke free as the upper flow is quite strong. The direction will initially be from the South West then becoming westerly then North Westerly. The west coast long wave trof will likely reload several times between Friday and next week… The weekend looks quite breezy and cooler….
The Rough Fire has grown to 51,794 acres with an increase in containment to 17%.
A battle between the 4 corners high and a rather energetic belt of Westerlies is being won by the Continental this coming week. Thus the current high temperatures in the 80s will likely remain for at least another 3 to 5 days. Any dip into the upper 70s will probably be delayed for the end of next week if that. Night time lows are currently in the low 50s. Mid 40s to low 50s also seems likely at 8000ft. The Rough fire west of Independence is continuing to burn with over 47,000 acres now consumed. It is only 7% contained. Smoke will likely continue to spread north through the Owens Valley and the Central Sierra in the coming week…..
The climatology of September indicates that the 4 corners high will gradually weaken. So when we have another recurving super Typhoon off Japan, by the middle of September, the idea of a stronger westerly push seems more likely to make it. The Dweebs will be sure to identify the weather change, when another pattern sets up. The Re-curving of the current typhoons off Japan is quite early in its development for this time of the year. This maybe why the models brought in too much cooling and wind for the upcoming week. Additionally, it should be noted that there is an exceptional amount of tropical storm activity not only in the Western pacific, but also in the central and eastern pacific. This is no doubt related to the low-frequency state of EL Nino.
Waters off the Southern California coast are reported to be in the low to mid 70s. SSTAs usually peak in September off the SO-CAL coast. Being that there is such an exceptionally strong El Nino in process…..it will be of interest to see if any tropical storm holds together long enough to bring Southern California a major rain event with coastal gale force winds, September and October.
Remembering Hurricane’s Iwa and Iniki, the south shore of Kawai seems to be highly susceptible to tropical storms during El Ninos. The months of September, October and November are of most concern as El Nino Peaks out. Hurricane Iwa passed within 25 miles of the island of Kauai with peak winds of 90 mph (145 km/h) on November 23, 1982. Iniki struck the island of Kauai on September 11, 1992 at peak intensity; it had winds of 145 miles per hour (233 km/h) and reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
High temps will settle back to normal as we trend into next week……Strong amplification from recurving Typhoon east of Japan will develop a major trof off the west coast the end of the month…..Record El Nino event still possible……
Thursday August 20, 2015
Posted at 7:28 am by Howard
Brief message from the Bureau of Meteorology of AU on El Nino…..
The 2015 El Niño has continued to strengthen over the past 14 days… “The ocean and atmosphere are reinforcing each other”, with tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures well above El Niño thresholds, consistently weakened trade winds, and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Strong coupling of the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere is typical of a mature El Niño, “and suggests only a small chance” of the event finishing before the end of the year. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the tropical Pacific is likely to warm further, peaking later in the year. Typically, El Niño peaks during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn.
From the MET (ECMWF)
Some ensemble members produce very large anomalies, with anomalies above 3.3 °C implying NINO3.4 temperatures of 30 °C or higher. Such temperatures are physically unlikely, and forecast anomalies above 3 °C are believed to be largely due to non-linearities detrimentally affecting the model calibration.
“Because they are rare, we have limited experience of how models handle such extreme conditions, so some caution is needed in interpreting the plots shown on the web. We take the EUROSIP forecast to suggest that it is very likely that sea-surface temperature anomalies will be at or above 2 °C by November, and that, although the largest anomalies shown are unrealistic, it is possible that the 1997 record values will be exceeded,” Dr Stockdale said.
Short term weather events…
- Strong Typhoon beginning to re-curve up to the east of Japan…. Expect strong constructive phasing with the westerlie’s next week…..
- Hawaii need to keep watchful eye on a Hurricane next week as it heads north from the lower tropics….
- Strong amplification of the westerlies to bring cooler breezy weather 2nd half of next week…..
- Cooling trend next week looses steam as upper trof become cut off…..Mammoth Lakes highs to continues in the 80s through the middle of next week……