Wednesday PM:

Quick Look at 12Z ECMWF and 18Z GFSX show Sundays weather system trending;

  1. More *Consolidated over Central CA
  2. Stronger further South
  3. Wetter for the Central Sierra

*Consolidated meaning with “less” splitting.  “If” the trend continues well have another storm to write home about…..

Remember, this mornings run showed much more splitting over Central California with only light amounts.

Great winters are the ones when everything comes together in the same area consistently.


Tuesday PM:

Longer range climate models keep below normal temps in the forecast the next two weeks with a Trof in the mean over the Central and Southern Great Basin.

The MJO and the low frequency base state of ENSO:

Folks at CPC had their update this morning and indicated that there is a lot of Destructive Interference going on with the ENSO State. There is more convection going on than normal north of Australia where typically it is mostly subsidence during a strong El Nino. In my opinion, this is probably why the SOI has risen to weakly positive today. The idea is that the MJO signal that is responsible for the interference will weaken next week and reemerge over the Western Indian Ocean.  That should return the low frequency state of ENSO back to normal week 2, with convection redeveloping over the western Indian ocean and stronger subsidence and dryness over the Maritime Continent. Again, in my opinion, this should be followed by a sharp drop in the SOI and the return of westerly wind bursts over the central pacific eastward, later this month. Also noted were two more Kelvin Waves that will propagate east to the eastern pacific week two.

The ENSO 3.4 region checked in with a +2.8C with the recent update. That ties the record during the Fall of 1997 for that region in that SST anomaly. The Dweebs believe we will have a new record within the next few weeks in that 3.4 region as there is still plenty of warmth beneath the surface yet to rise. This is the classic case of not all El Nino’s being the same, if some areas have record warmth over a past event in one area and in other areas like the 1+2 region not as warm.  For the west coast what is important winter wise for CA, is the SSTs in the Nino 3.4 region.  That is where currently we now have a tied record.

What was noted as well was the anomalous convection that occurred over the western Indian Ocean last month. As a coincidence, that also occurred during the Fall of the strong El Ninos of 1982/83 and 1997/98.  This is expected to occur again later this month as the MJO reemerge off the east coast of Africa.   More later………


Mammoth Mt is off and running! Off to an amazing ski season…..!!

WX Discussion:

First Platinum Powder Alert is in the bag now and for the most part, the storm over Mono County is over.  A few snow showers are possible today as the upper low and cold core shift east.   A warming trend begins Wednesday as heights rise and the upper flow becomes northwesterly. High temps today are expected to be in the upper 20s and low 30s at 8K rising to the low 50s next weekend.   The next system may bring light snowfall Sunday night into Monday, however there is not a lot of confidence in the system as of this time…

With warming aloft and a cold snow covered surface, many areas around Eastern CA and Western NV this week may have air quality issues because of temperature inversions….


Longer range guidance via all model ensembles, strongly suggests that another major storm will arrive before the Thanksgiving Holiday….

This is still not an El Nino driven pattern….yet…..  However, as mentioned in a past discussion. The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge is gone from the west coast!  (RRR)


More later….


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)