Storm System slowing this evening as it begins to stretch and split a bit……Snowfall to be delayed until late morning or mid-day at the latest…..
Saturday November 14, 2015
Posted at 11:17 pm by Howard
There was some media Hype today in the news about the Godzilla El Nino. Although it is true that in the part of the NINO BASIN…. Nino 3 and Nino 3.4, the SSTA has reach +3.0C. However, it has only been there for a week. Now looking at the recharge from the past Kelvin Wave at 150M below the surface, the budge of warm water is fat and sassy! Odds are, that the Nino Basin in this area will most likely maintain that kind of heat at the surface or even get slightly warmer the next few weeks.
Remember that model from NASA actually did forecast the +3.0C temperature anomaly for November, which a lot of science folks Poo Pooed and for good reason. Because of its rarity. But it is here now! It will be interesting to see how long this can keep up in this area. Will it be a few weeks, a month or ??
Warm Enso Conditions and Teleconnections:
One of the Signature teleconnections and an El Nino Event is the -(TNH) Teleconnection Pattern:
The negative phase of the TNH pattern is often observed during December and January when Pacific warm (ENSO) episode conditions are present. One example of this is the 1994/95 winter season, when mature pacific warm episode conditions and a strong negative phase of the TNH pattern were present. During this period, the mean Hudson Bay trough was much weaker than normal and shifted northeastward toward the Labrador Sea. Additionally, the Pacific jet stream was much stronger than normal and shifted southward to central California, well south of its climatological mean position in the Pacific Northwest. This flow pattern brought well above-normal temperatures to eastern North America and above-normal rainfall to the southwestern United States.
Cold with Mcflurry-upslope 😉
130knot….. north/south orientated upper jet over the top of us…..translating east…. It is Windy today over the upper elevations and there is a wind chill factor for skiers and boarders…. Highs today in the teens on the mountain……Upper 20s in town.
Expect less upper level wind tomorrow and much less on Wednesday. Lows at night are in the teens but will climb to the 20s by mid-week. Expect temps to become inverted again by mid week..
After today it will be a dry week with temperatures at resort levels returning to the 50s by Wednesday or Thursday.
The next possible stormy period will be next week toward mid week…..around the Thanksgiving holiday..
Expect More detailed WX discussion later this week…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)
As mentioned below….The storm has slowed with some splitting going on with more energy shifting south. This has delayed the onset of the snowfall to the high country and specifically Southern Mono County. Late last night…..The Rapid Refresh-Model (RRR) showed the onset of the storm beginning about 10:00AM here in Mammoth. The model continues to be consistent on this, and so expect snowfall to begin around that time increasing and becoming heavy during the afternoon…
The estimated accumulations are still good as a guide…
Just a quick update this evening to indicate that the off shore weather system is slowing and may not begin the snowfall in Mammoth until between 10:00am and Noon…..a lot of the energy will be diving south in this system. At this time the Town of Mammoth is still expected to get between 3 and 6 inches of snow with amounts between 6 and 12 inches on Mammoth Mountain. As a note, weather systems like this have less confidence for the forecaster as the QPF is more iffy. Nevertheless, the Dweebs at this point are holding on to the 3 to 6 inches forecast for the Town of Mammoth with roughly double up on the hill by Monday AM.
Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 30s…..Expect breezy conditions in town with winds 15 to 20mph with gusts to 35mph
Lows Sunday night in the single digits and teens…………….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)