Very Cold Upper Low to descend upon California over the Thanksgiving Holiday…..Snow and Cold are the highlights of the holiday and possibly down to some very low elevations….
Thursday November 19, 2015
Posted at 11:26 pm by Howard
Once again the ECMWF has a little more westward track for early this week. So again, the westward extent of the track determines the amount of snow we get. With the amount of ensembles that show a little more west- ward track, there is still time for the models to dig more west for more snowfall for the Tuesday through Wednesday system. So to keep from jaw boning and yo-yoing… will call it a weekend and update Monday AM.
PS…as mentioned below…
There is that possibly of southern stream energy effecting the southern half of California next weekend.. This is something that holiday travelers will need to keep an eye on…
Your going to hear about this sooner than later, but the pattern for the Thanksgiving weekend may involve some southern stream energy. It was in the 00z Friday ECMWF last night and the Dweebs did not think much of it. However, the GFX has something like it now as well. There are either one or two short waves…one that has more “From” a NW trajectory and the other undercutting the upper ridge in the Gulf of AK. The Dweebs want to see some more runs…. Like a few days worth. This is a pattern that can bring snow to the Owens Valley if it sets up right. Like I mentioned, lots of possibilities, but all a long ways out……
Will Probably comment at some point over this weekend…..
The track of this cold core upper low is still down over land Via the Gulf of AK with some minor over water trajectory. No more than light snowfall is expected over Mono county at this time…..between Tuesday and Thursday. The are some very interesting twists to the deterministic ECMWF from the 00z Friday model that I will not get into at this time. I will update Saturday with hopes that there will be more confidence in any particular model or solution. With that said it is going to be very cold all over California and any precipitation that falls later in the week as snow may fall to some surprisingly low levels….Nothing is out of the question including snow down the Owens Valley and anywhere else…. The EC model is struggling this evening with something very unusual……
Your high temperature forecast for Mammoth Wednesday is 23 with an overnight low of 5 Thursday AM
Next update Saturday the 21st………….