Happy Thanksgiving Everyone from the Dweebs!…..Snow showers likely to continue for the next few days as cyclonic upper flow continues…..Light Accumulation’s Expected………
Thursday November 26, 2015
Posted at 11:32 am by Howard
Baby its cold outside…2 degrees! the high today will again be in the low 20s! Low 30s seem more likely for Sunday and low 40s by Tuesday….
It appears that our cold Great Basin Low will hang around one more day before departing Sunday. More Scattered snow showers are possible today with little accumulation. Warming will move back into our region Sunday with a warming trend through mid week before the next storm moves in about Thursday. The next weather system does not look like a major storm at this time, as the way the upper jet is coming in is more North/South orientated. This does not lend itself to extend precipitation very far east beyond the crest. The system may exit rather quickly as well by Friday AM. Nevertheless, the storm may bring a foot or better over the crest to freshen things up…..
El Nino Update:
Southern California must have patience!
The El Nino Effect upon the Jet stream for Southern California usually takes until at least December if not January to begin….
All the Eastern Tropical Pacific displaced heat is there for the atmosphere to do its magic with. So the pattern of storm after storm for Southern California will still likely occur this Winter….. However…it is not winter yet!
One should know that although this current El Nino is possibly peaking….it is likely to remain very strong though at least January…..strong through February and possibly March!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
Friday AM at 8:50 “Snapshot!”
It is 15 degrees…..
Picked up about inch last night.
Cold to hang on through Saturday with highs today Friday near 20…..Tonight 3 degrees. There may be another inch or two of snow by Saturday AM.
It will be warmer next week with highs returning to the 40s by Tuesday and Wednesday…..Next storm will be Thursday Night into Friday Night.
*Best guess at the moment; 3 to 6 in town and 6 to 12 on Mammoth Mt….by Saturday AM
*Confidence is low at this time for this storm….. It will be a warmer system with higher snow levels than what we have currently….
Happy Thanksgiving everyone…….Mammoth Mt is reporting 14 to 24 inches of Platinum Powder…..A fabulous Thanksgiving present for powder skier and boarders……
At 18z Thursday (10:00am), cold cyclonic flow aloft is associated with an upper low, centered over NV. Modified Arctic Air is being trapped beneath higher pressure centered NW of Victoria, Canada. This upper ridge has effectively tucked in the cold upper low over NV and CA. The coldest temperatures will arrive Friday night as the ECMWF model has -15C at 700MB and -31C at 500MB over the top of Mammoth Mt. Thus the coldest air mass of this particular pattern will be realized Friday night into early Saturday AM. No doubt more snow showers will develop in the fridged air……
Relief is in sight!
The coldest air with this particular pattern begins to move out Sunday PM and temperatures at 10,000 ft go from -15C to 0C by this coming Wednesday AM. That’s 27F degrees of warming! Daytime highs in Mammoth will return to the 40s, with nighttime temps in the teens and 20s.
Lot’s of folks have been confused about all the cold temps with this El Nino during this season. El Nino Falls and early Winters often set up cold as the Continental Ridge is often in the east; and with no Hudson Bay Vortex over that area. Instead it is displaced ENE over Newfoundland. As the East Asian upper jet continues to strengthen, More and More blocking will develop over Western Canada and AK. The typical Gulf of Alaska Low will be displaced south, north of Hawaii and eventually extend to California. This is the classic -TNH teleconnection pattern associated with strong El Nino winters. That may happen intermittently in December with a few good storms into Southern CA. However by January, the immense power of the East Asian Jet should be unleashed into the central west coast. With periods of storm after storm…. These storm cycles will have much higher snow levels like between 6000ft to 10,000ft at times….Snow to water ratios will often be between 5:1 and 10:1 with some even lower snow to water ratios. The odds for any Platinum Powder is not as likely as early in the snow season. However with that said, the odds for a few, Platinum Powder days will likely return in the early to mid Spring as El Nino continues to fade….. Actually, since the SOI has returned to positive, it is possible that our El Nino has peaked already…..
Although there is the chance of a few light to moderate storms the first week of December, there appears to be a moderate wet pattern developing during the 2nd week of December….just in time for the Christmas Holiday season….
The CFS v2 shows between 3.5 and 4 inches of water EQ for our area through December 31st. At 10:1 that would be over 3 feet of snow. Cold air over our region retreats the first week of December with above normal temps expected the second week of Dec, followed by below normal temps the 3rd week of Dec.
Of note, the Pacific NW is still the receiver of the heavy rainfall and precipitation for the west coast through year end, indicating that the Classic El Nino forced hemispheric pattern had yet to make it to California by year-end….That according to the CFC v2.
This is just an outlook….not a forecast…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….