Archive for November, 2015

What a Storm! 20 inches at the Main Lodge….26 inches at McCoy Station and 36 inches on Top…..That’s’ about 2 Feet of Platinum Powder at the Summit on Top of what the WX Front droped!

Wednesday PM:

Quick Look at 12Z ECMWF and 18Z GFSX show Sundays weather system trending;

  1. More *Consolidated over Central CA
  2. Stronger further South
  3. Wetter for the Central Sierra

*Consolidated meaning with “less” splitting.  “If” the trend continues well have another storm to write home about…..

Remember, this mornings run showed much more splitting over Central California with only light amounts.

Great winters are the ones when everything comes together in the same area consistently.

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Tuesday PM:

Longer range climate models keep below normal temps in the forecast the next two weeks with a Trof in the mean over the Central and Southern Great Basin.

The MJO and the low frequency base state of ENSO:

Folks at CPC had their update this morning and indicated that there is a lot of Destructive Interference going on with the ENSO State. There is more convection going on than normal north of Australia where typically it is mostly subsidence during a strong El Nino. In my opinion, this is probably why the SOI has risen to weakly positive today. The idea is that the MJO signal that is responsible for the interference will weaken next week and reemerge over the Western Indian Ocean.  That should return the low frequency state of ENSO back to normal week 2, with convection redeveloping over the western Indian ocean and stronger subsidence and dryness over the Maritime Continent. Again, in my opinion, this should be followed by a sharp drop in the SOI and the return of westerly wind bursts over the central pacific eastward, later this month. Also noted were two more Kelvin Waves that will propagate east to the eastern pacific week two.

The ENSO 3.4 region checked in with a +2.8C with the recent update. That ties the record during the Fall of 1997 for that region in that SST anomaly. The Dweebs believe we will have a new record within the next few weeks in that 3.4 region as there is still plenty of warmth beneath the surface yet to rise. This is the classic case of not all El Nino’s being the same, if some areas have record warmth over a past event in one area and in other areas like the 1+2 region not as warm.  For the west coast what is important winter wise for CA, is the SSTs in the Nino 3.4 region.  That is where currently we now have a tied record.

What was noted as well was the anomalous convection that occurred over the western Indian Ocean last month. As a coincidence, that also occurred during the Fall of the strong El Ninos of 1982/83 and 1997/98.  This is expected to occur again later this month as the MJO reemerge off the east coast of Africa.   More later………

 

Mammoth Mt is off and running! Off to an amazing ski season…..!!

WX Discussion:

First Platinum Powder Alert is in the bag now and for the most part, the storm over Mono County is over.  A few snow showers are possible today as the upper low and cold core shift east.   A warming trend begins Wednesday as heights rise and the upper flow becomes northwesterly. High temps today are expected to be in the upper 20s and low 30s at 8K rising to the low 50s next weekend.   The next system may bring light snowfall Sunday night into Monday, however there is not a lot of confidence in the system as of this time…

With warming aloft and a cold snow covered surface, many areas around Eastern CA and Western NV this week may have air quality issues because of temperature inversions….

 

Longer range guidance via all model ensembles, strongly suggests that another major storm will arrive before the Thanksgiving Holiday….

This is still not an El Nino driven pattern….yet…..  However, as mentioned in a past discussion. The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge is gone from the west coast!  (RRR)

 

More later….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

 

 

1st Platinum Powder Alert For Monday Night!……..12 inches of 15:1 expected at and above 10,000 feet by Tuesday Morning……..

Never Trust a Storm!

However if a storm is going to weaken and then strengthen with the possibilities of more snowfall,  we (The Dweebs)  like it!

Latest model trends show a deeper, colder and slightly further west tracking system with the same idea as yesterday in bringing in a classic system capable of moderate snowfall amounts. There will be a weather front with snowfall ratios of 10 to 1 late tonight into Monday AM followed by a colder more convective portion with heavier accumulations Monday night. Snow to water ratios of between 15:1 at 10,000 feet and up to 18:1 are expected over the crest. With the QPF amounts additionally .6 to .75 in that colder portion;  the PPQ qualifier of a foot appears attainable between 4:00PM Monday and Midnight Monday night. Storm total is possibly 18 inches at and above 10K.

 

This looks to be a two plow storm for the Snow Pushers…..

 

Updating…………………………………..

Weak Ridging will bring a Minor Warm-up over the high country the next few days…..Sunday Night Monday System Trending Drier than earlier predictions….

Sunday 1:30AM

Looking at 00z runs Upper Trof and weather front are now as comparable as it looked 3 to 4 days ago.  In fact the moisture plum looks a little juicier. So 7 to 12 inches with some areas as much as 15 inches over the crest at 12:1 to 13:1 at 10K and above.  This snow will be nice and light!  Good powder skiing Monday afternoon. The Town will get 3 to 6+ inches between Sunday night and Monday PM

 

Sat PM:

Western Hemispheric pattern remains very progressive!  No Eastern Pacific Blocking!  New QPF still hangs on to this mornings update with close to an Inch.   Snow to start Sunday night with snow likely By Midnight….    Forecast amounts in forecast discussion below still look good….

 

Saturday AM update:

it did not make much sense updating yesterday in that models trended drier with the storm for Sunday night and Monday. This mornings update raises hope that amounts “Maybe” more inline with earlier forecasts.  Looking at the new 12z Saturday WRF/NGM it is becoming more obvious that this storm will have two parts. The Front that will come in Sunday night,  and a VT max with the upper trof itself.  The first part of the storm would bring up to 5 or 6 inches over the upper elevations by Monday AM. The 2nd part of the storm seems to be lagging some 6 to 12 hours behind.  This second part is quite convective and “if” it come in like the WRF shows, it  may bring another 3 to 6 inches as well. Convective systems are more difficult to forecast as they are associated with smaller scale areas of precipitation. This means that areas that are a few miles away from heavier areas of precipitation could be much drier.  For what it is worth, latest WRF QPF for our area is now up to close to an inch. Translate that to snowfall ,  and considering the temperature’s, it is close to a foot over Mammoth Mt by early Tuesday AM.

The Dweebs will update Sunday morning…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………..:-)