Meteorological Winter Arrives Today Dec 1 as a Weak Winter Storm Moves in Late Thursday…..SOI CRASHING LIKE 1997!…….
Tuesday December 1, 2015
Posted at 9:17 am by Howard
The Storm System is a QPF bust in Mono County.
It brought little more than an inch at the main lodge and up to 2 inches over the crest.
Late this afternoon the HRRR had the right idea all along but the Dweebs focused on the QPF of the other models.
We will relay more on the 3K HRRR in the future when looking at a time frame of up to 12 hours….
The Focus now begins to turn to the pattern change shaping up for the middle of next week. A powerhouse “Zonal” 180 knot at 300MB will punch into Northern California Wednesday night and shift south to the Bay Area by Thursday AM. Although this looks like another primarily Northern CA storm precip wise….The Dweebs are not totally convinced at this time that Mono County will not be in for a major storm because of:
- The SOI tanking this past week.
- The distance in time.
One thing is for sure, it is going to get real windy Wednesday Night.
I will update a lot this weekend………………….
8:00 AM Thursday
Some thoughts today about the next weather system…..
The Highlights are as follows….
- Lots of wind Thursday. Wind Advisory hoisted for 10:00AM to 10:00PM tonight
- Light amounts of snow (2 to 4 inches in town); (3 to 6) on Mammoth Mt by Friday AM)
- The leading upper jet has us in the front RT quad with convergence aloft and a windy scenario.
The New NCEP GEFS Ensembles [T574] arrives in a few hours. The first run of it will be for the todays 12Z output. It will be the latest and greatest that NCEP has to date.
I will report on its longer range possibilities this afternoon if it is ready…
- Were still looking at a minor Winter Storm with light amounts of snowfall Thursday night.
2. While I wait for the new 12Z ensemble Runs….I think that it is important to note that later next week around the 10th of December, a powerful jet stream will push into the west coast with strong winds and heavy precipitation. The nose of 180 knot upper jet is on shore around the night of the 9th or during the day of the 10th. This upper jet is progged to sag south with time. Snow levels would be quite high but there is cold air behind it.
This will be the up coming story from the Dweebs later this week and into the next.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)