Very Cold Temperatures to continue another day or two before some Moderation occurs prior to Weekend…..Next system becoming less Impressive for Southern Ca…However…..Some moderate amounts still possible…….Hemispheric Pattern still evolving….With the best for Precipitation not all that far off for Central and Eventually Southern California….
Tuesday December 15, 2015
Posted at 7:32 am by Howard
To make this quick forecast seem on track with a little more west ward track to upper track.
4 to 7 in town and 7 to 12 on Mammoth Mountain between Saturday AM and Saturday Night.
- Moderating temps up into the 40s Thursday and Friday. Dry through Friday Light breezes…. Lows in the teens…
- Small Systems to bring mainly light amounts of snowfall Saturday and Saturday night as upper jet, Rear Rt Entry Region passes through over head Saturday.
A. Early Est. 1 to 3 inches in town and 3 to 6 on Mammoth Mt, Saturday/Night.
- Becoming Windy over upper elevations Sunday and breezy in town
- For the time being we are looking at breezy to windy weather early next week with a chance of snow.
- There is a storm expected for Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. With Moderate to possibly heavy amounts expected at this time. (According to 12Z Wed GFS)
a. The storm “May” qualify for Platinum Powder Criteria. IE. A foot or more with Snow to Water ratio’s of 15:1 (More Later) Depending upon how long it develops over the ocean.
b. If it slows and becomes wetter, then expect more snow and less cold. If it develops closer to the coast, it will be colder with only moderate amounts.
- The latest 12Z Wed GFS runs shows it slowing further off shore and wetter! 😉 Who all wants to get snowed in for Christmas?
The short term is pretty straight forward. A warming trend with over running high clouds as a short wave ridge builds in. Highs on Wednesday in the 30s with 40s on Thursday. The upper ridge now building in, weakens Friday into Saturday as a decent system drops south from the Gulf of AK. Lots of problems in the models today with the ridge in the east, the cold system creeping out of the inter mountain west creating wave length issues and splitting possibilities. To add to all that, there is a Tropical Storm in the western pacific and a *super bomb in development off the coast of Japan. See *explanation below.
It has been a while since I have seen so much Chaos. Time always works things out. So for the time being, all bets off on the weekend forecast for both Central and Southern CA.
PS. The ECMWF still has a storm coming into Southern CA this weekend. However, based upon what is going on, the Dweebs have no confidence in this system at this time….
As of this time…both the EC and GFS bring only showers to Southern CA this weekend…. This is a big change from days before.
Currently, a *super bomb (*a rapidly deepening surface low) off the coast of Japan is in development. It is expected to bomb out at 943MB by 06Z Friday. In chatting with Tom C today, it was considered that this current event over the next 48 to 60 hours might be the energy that helps to get us a storm around Christmas Day…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..