Happy New Year from the Dweebs!!!! And may it be a wet one…..Last 2015 post…..
Wednesday December 30, 2015
Posted at 12:26 pm by Howard
The weather over the next few days will be pretty quiet. The Dweebs expect colder than normal temps that will moderate a bit by the end of this week. Highs this week will vary between the 20s and 30s with lows in the single digits and teens for the most part. I am expecting dry weather through Sunday with no measurable snowfall. That may change by late Sunday night………….
The positive phase of the Pacific North American pattern is evolving. So we’ll have an upper height anomaly over Western Canada in the coming weeks. Additionally, the Negative Phase of the AO is forecast to develop next week along with the Negative phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (-EPO). This combination will create more conflict with air masses and tighter pressure gradients. This is the last shoe to drop in the transition to bring wet weather to the State of CA. According to the CFS, this is not a short term transition. It is likely to continue for several weeks according to the latest Weeks 2, 3 and 4 of the Climate Forecast System. Of course the devil is in the details….. 😈
Todays medium and longer range charts from the ECMWF shows up to three systems next week. The first will weaken as it approach the So-Cal coast and so lighter amounts are expected as compared to the following two….. The GFS is still more generous with QPF for Southern CA than the ECMWF. However, both are similar by the week ending the 10th. The 2nd and 3rd system is better for the southern and central sierra as well…. I really like the 500mb height pattern by Mid-Month. It looks very wet for the Sierra and should give us a lot of snowfall.
Here is the Loading from the week 3 500 hPa issued the 28th from the CFS, week ending 1/19/2016
- Negative AO with upper height Anomaly of +120 meters
A 2nd upper height anomaly of +80 meters over the NW territories
- Another Upper Height anomaly of +90 meters near the dateline south of Kamchatka.
A subtropical height anomaly of greater than +50 meters centered SE of Hawaii.
- Most importantly, a deep negative height anomaly of -150 Meters is located near 135west with Negative height field east to California. (Looking very wet!)
I will update next weeks outlook, Friday January 1 by the evening…………
Happy New Year from the Dweebs.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)