Archive for year 2015

Moisture from Tropical depression Blanca is moving north over the Baja Peninsula and will merge with upper low west of Southern CA Tuesday Night and Wednesday…….Moderate to possibly Heavy Rainfall is expected….

Tropical Storm Blanca made landfall on the west side of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula this morning about 5 AM. Top winds were 45MPH. This is possibly the earliest landfall of a tropical storm along the BAJA Coast ever. The last time an early landfall occurred was early July of 1993.

 

Tuesdays weather looks fair in the morning with increasing clouds in the afternoon leading to scattered thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms may continue through the night and into Wednesday…  A drying trend will begin Thursday with a warm dry following weekend. Lows are in the 40s now.  Looking down the road….July looks anything but normal….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)

 

Forecast Models This Evening are becoming more Robust with the upcoming pattern of a closed low developing a bit more south for better Divergence over Mono County…….Upper Low Ejects out by Sunday…….But leaves part of the Trof behind for more upper divergence next week…..

Saturday PM:

Another 850 Convergence-250 Divergence couplet has developed over the Owens Valley. No doubt this will assist to firing up some afternoon convection for more of the same today and this evening. Over Mono County, plenty of moisture being re-circulated and plenty of morning sun to increase the CAPEs this PM for more of the same as well.  PWAT is between .5 and .6 tenths of water in the column.  So a few thunderstorms could have some brief heavy rain and hail.

After another day Sunday of afternoon thunderstorm action…..a drier air mass is expected Monday and Tuesday for isolated action.  It will be sensibly warmer Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low 70s.

 

Another upper low will increase the thunderstorms action about mid-week

 

Next Update Tuesday…..

 

 

The Dweeber………………………………:-)

 

 

Friday AM:

Another active day is expected today and Saturday with an 80% chance of scattered afternoon and evening showers and Thunderstorms. Highs will be in the low 60, lows in the upper 30s.  It does look a bit drier Sunday and Monday with about a 30% chance of precipitation.  Next week there will still be some storms, but the aerial coverage will not be as widespread as the next two days….

 

Longer range shows another upper low to effect the area about next Thursday….

 

Thursday AM Update:

SPC Mesoscale  Analysis shows a 850-250 Convergence-Divergence couplet over Inyo county this morning that runs right up through Western NV. Precipitable water is not all that impressive with about 1/2 inch at the moment.  However, that will increase over the coming 24 to 48 hours as the pattern moistens due to both dynamical and convective action.  The lifteds are not all that impressive yet as well.  With the first upper jet associated with the upper low at 500mb running SW/NE up through Southern CA up into Central Inyo County, an 850-250 couplet is very evident with Showers already occurring reported  this morning over the Bishop AP. A line of showers are current active over Mineral County, NV northward. This is being forced by the combination of strong upper divergence, especially NE of RENO and moist unstable CAPEs as high as 500 to 1000 J/KG.

Short term models drop the upper low south today. So the initial upper jet slides east, however,  upper divergence will drop south with the upper low. And…with all the daytime heating currently going on…CAPEs will certainly increase over Mono County, as well as upper divergence. I expect a nice 850/250 couplet over Mono County later this afternoon.  It looks like it will be pretty active with showers and Thunderstorms. Some heavy rain, hail and snow above 10,000 to 10,500 possible, especially east of Highway 395.

 

The Dweeber……………………..:-)

 

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It appears that Mono County will fair better now then earlier thought for significant precipitation with the upcoming systems as its track is a bit further south like forecasted earlier on.  A southward shift of some 50 to 75 miles will make a big difference for heavy rain potential. Especially during the afternoon and early evening hours,  We are close to about two weeks from the Summer Solstice. The Suns high angle now possesses the strength of some pretty amazing convection. It would not surprise me if there are reports of Cold Core Funnel clouds over the coming days. Will take a look at the SPC in the morning……

Outlook:

The pattern forecasted by the models kicks out the upper low Saturday night and Sunday. However……the long wave remains with another system approaching the coast by mid-week. In that there will be a lot of moisture left from this weekends system, showers and thunder will most likely continue on and off a good part of next week. At the moment, the following weekend of the 13th and 14th looks dry…

Tomorrow Thursday through Sunday….

Expect scattered showers, thunderstorms, hail and areas of heavy rain weekend. High temps near 60 Friday and Saturday with warmer temps Sunday….possibly 65 to 70…and lows near 40.

 

The Dweeber………………….

Weak Trofing continues today with Afternoon Breezes Expected….Showers and some Thunder Expected Friday and Saturday……

Forecast models have come into more agreement for the weekend showing where and how an upper low will move through California.  It forms a closed center near the Bay Area Thursday at 11:00AM then follows the coast line to LAX by Friday Night at 11:00PM. There after the track takes it over Death Valley by Saturday at 11:00AM.  At the Moment, between later Thursday afternoon and Sunday Mammoth could pick up between 1/2 to 1 inches of rain through the period based upon both The GFS and ECMWF……  Most of the precipitation will be north Bridgeport northward and over the Sierra and East to NV.

 

CPC discussion today reviled that the Strong MJO Signal is fairly static, meaning that it is most likely not MJO and is more related to the low frequency state of ENSO. There are few very robust Kelvin Waves that are moving around the earth along the EQ.  Based upon this, it is highly unlikely that strong Convection will develop in phase 3 as thought yesterday. Thus the cool down projected by the MJO Composites indicated a few days ago are probably not valid. Non the less, I do not see a change to the current pattern of periods of showers and weak troughing anytime soon….