Weather Pattern has once again turned active in the high country with periods of light to moderate snow this weekend…….Then a Potential AR Event Late Sunday Night though Tuesday….
Thursday January 14, 2016
Posted at 10:39 pm by Howard
Sunday 7:45 AM
Although the focus of the “AR” will be over Northern CA this Coming Week…Mammoth Mt could still pick up 18 to 24 inches of wet snow between Tonight and Tuesday evening….. These are two storms back to back that are each moderate precipitation producing storms. There will be a break Wednesday and Thursday before another moderate storm hits Friday…..The Dweebs definition of a moderate storm is one that produces between 6 to 18 inches of snow over a 24 hour period.
Snowfall amounts were in the 3 to 4 inch range over the upper elevations with a trace to an inch or so in town.
The focus now shifts to Sunday night through Tuesday time frame as deeper moisture moves into the pacific NW south to Central CA.
This morning, CRFC did pull back on the QPF between Sunday night through Tuesday to less than an inch for Yosemite. Obviously the models have become drier for Central CA. However, this is a day to day situation and the Dweebs will update Sunday when were are within 24 hours of the beginning of the AR that will hit parts of the west coast.
Late tonight and Saturday AM 2 to 3 in town and 3 to 6 over Old Woolly…
The Models are really starting to pick up on quite the wet pattern next week and possibly beyond. Even Southern CA may turn much wetter later in the week and beyond….
The Dweebs are hoping that this is what we all have been waiting for..
After what was deemed our January thaw, another active weather pattern has developed. Although the storms Thursday through Sunday are in the light to moderate range, there will be some breaks with partly cloudy skies later Saturday into Sunday morning….the only other issue is that it will be very windy at times over the upper elevations. Looking at the outlook….Buckle Up! There is a chance for a real AR event beginning late Sunday night with the juice really increasing Monday into Tuesday. “A colloquial Pineapple Express maybe be touted” The Experimental model HIWPP FIM9 14-km showed a nice AR connection to near Hawaii with PWAT of up to 1.5 inches Monday and Tuesday.
If this sets up and I mean if….It will be wet base building snow with high moisture content with the snow level in the 7,000 to 8,500 range early next week. The Snow level will come down later Tuesday. Better confidence will occur by this Saturday PM for the Monday/Tuesday event so stay tuned. Sorry Southern Calif…. Although you will get some rain, You will have to wait until the following Friday to get your Pineapple’s…Maybe
The precipitation forecast shows moderate amounts of snow Thursday night into Friday AM possibly 6 to 10 inches. Another fast-moving system is expected Friday night into Saturday AM with lighter amounts…1 to 3 inches in town and 3 to 6 over the upper elevations, by Saturday Noon.
The next system will begin to spread snowfall into the Mammoth Area by Sunday evening and continue through Tuesday….
Forecast as of Thursday night for the weekend….at the 8200 foot level
Friday: A chance of snow before 7am, then scattered snow showers between 7am and 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday: Snow. High near 39. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow showers before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.
Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
M.L.King Day: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.
Monday Night: Snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Tuesday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.