Omega Block in Place with highly Amped Upper Ridge over California…..February Thaw in Process….Mammoth Mountain Boasts 9 to 14 Foot Base!!
Monday February 8, 2016
Posted at 8:58 am by Howard
No surprises this weekend….The Dweebs are still working out the QPF for the mid-week storm….Will have a final on that most likely later Sunday AM on my “Plat Powder Email”…..when both GFS and EC come into better agreement…..
Fair partly and mild through Tuesday……highs in the 50s….Lows in the 20 to 30.
A Quick Update this AM to be followed by more detail on the Mid Week Storm for next week…..
A big question still remains on whether the Wed/Thursday storm will pick up or phase with a subtropical system that will spin up off the coast of Baja this weekend. This Subtropical system is the result of a short wave that is into the Eastern Pacific now, and is in the process of splitting with a remnant subtropical low getting left behind….. This Remnant Closed Low has the potential develop a lot of subtropical moisture via upper divergence in its NE quad, over a 5 day period. Should the incoming short wave Wednesday phase with that weak system, that would provide much extra moisture for the storm to work with, enhancing the QPF significantly….
The Dweebs will follow-up with a special update via the Platinum Powder email service for our subscribers over the holiday weekend…………….
This is a quick comment in regards to the new MJO data, comparing the GFS Ensemble to the ECMWF Ensemble.
The Screaming message here is that they have both come into much better agreement on the strength of the MJO in Phase Space 7.
This increases the odds for another AR event here in the Eastern Sierra during the last week of February and first week of March……………..
The GFS is showing a Sigma of greater than +2.5; The ECMWF has Sigma close to +2. The MJO is very favorable in producing an “AR” event on the west coast this time of the year if +2 Sigma or greater held to through Phase space 8/1 (Dateline)
Just finished listening to the Climatic Prediction Center discussion on the Tropics. It was indicated that the Western Hemispheric pattern evident this week is related to the “destructive interference with El Nino. There are several tropical modes involved in this destructive interference including Equatorial Rossby Waves in addition to the currently weak MJO. The result is a pause or weakening of the effects of El Nino and a pattern over the northern hemisphere that is atypical for this time of the year in relation to a strong warm ENSO. The thinking of the researchers is that the MJO signal will strengthen based upon the various models and do a repeat of what it did in early January where it became strong in late December in phase 7 then progressed to along the border of phase spaces 7/8 near the dateline. At that point it will “Constructively Interfere” with the ENSO signal and effectively greatly enhance El Nino. This is likely to occur between the very end of Week 2 and especially week 3. So the period beginning between the “19th through the 22th”. This is the end of week 2. Then all of week 3. ( 23rd through the 29th) The odds of an AR event will especially be enhanced during the last week of February. The early part of the first week of March look stormy as well for California. This all the while the possibility of east coast folks will be dressed in short sleeve shirts.
As another note, that does not hold much confidence for the February 18th storm making it through the Sierra…although the new Operational ECMWF this morning shows the storm as a strong one and progressive through the Sierra the 18th.
Its Ridge City over the far west. Daytime highs will remain in the low to mid 50s in Mammoth this week with some cooling and breeze going into the weekend. Night time lows will remain in the 20s.
Next chance for snowfall will be around the 18th. That system will most likely split and weaken. The Dweebs will have a better handle on it over the weekend. Hopefully we’ll get some accumulation.
Next possible Storm Cycle the last week of February into the first week of March…..The MJO is looking very strong according to NCEP’s GFS
It was truly a Super Sunday with near record highs in many areas of the state. Eastern CA will get its chance today and tomorrow with between 5 and 9 degrees of additional warming expected. The temperature forecast for Mammoth both today and Tuesday is 59 degrees with highs near 70 much of this week in Bishop and low 80s in Death Valley.
The Convective part of the MJO envelope is looking like it is leaving the Mid-Maritime Continent north of Australia. The SOI is becoming negative again and this maybe be due to the Upper Divergent area of the MJO moving out of that same area. In the front of the MJO, the Upper “Divergent” portion IE “its convective phase” is expected to continue moving east toward dateline. In the examples below, by using the MJO Phase Space, one can see that it will strengthen in Phase 6 into phase 7 in the NCEP model, however, remains relatively weak in the European. The two CFS examples hold the promise for more precipitation the end of this month. Both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble’s have been hinting of a storm “around” the “18th” of February. However, the short wave will still be coming into the mean ridge position but a weaker one at that.
CFS: 500 Mean Height Anomalies Weeks 3 and 4: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160207.z500.gif
CFS: Precipitation Anomalies Weeks 3 and 4: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160207.NA.gif
It is clear that GFS is much more bullish of a break through of the westerlies toward the end of the month than the European Model is at the moment. The Dweebs suspect that with as strong as the NCEP models are, currently showing this MJO in phases 6 then phase 7 at nearly a 3 sigma, the GFS will probably begin to show the late week 2 period as being very wet over California. However, without the ECMWF being in agreement at this time, one should be cautious about going to the bank on this one until there is more agreement. The NCEP models may be picking up on a tropical storm and not the true state of MJO. That would act to cloak the true picture of the late week two period.
The Dweebs will monitor the strength of the MJO and report tomorrow after the CPC briefing……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)