Upper ridge to build and progress over California Today and Tuesday…..Warmer days expected…..Midweek Storm a Fickle One…..Now includes a Subtropical Tap…..Snowfall amounts increased for Wednesday Night and Thursday AM……It looks to be a windy one as well…..
Monday February 15, 2016
Posted at 9:08 am by Howard
After a couple of mild days early this week…..The Dweebs have seen more model consensus indicating a substantial subtropical moisture tap, that increases the QPF from moderate to now possibly heavy on Mammoth Mountain Wednesday night and Thursday. Overall, snowfall amounts will be determined by how quickly the short wave moves through.
Both EC and GFS are showing a nice but brief subtropical tap of about 6 to 12 hours, that will act to prime the pump in advance of strong dynamics that will move through the Sierra Later Wednesday Night and Early Thursday AM. Additionally, this system is not likely to split. It will move right on through the Sierra with good orographic’s.
The storm will benefit the Central Sierra and Southern Sierra…Southern CA will see little if any precip. The WPC QPF is between 1.75 and 2.00 of water EQ, enough for a 8 to 15 inches of snow in town and 18 to 24 inches over the higher elevations by Friday AM. The snow level Wednesday afternoon is above 8,000 feet but will fall to 7000 by 4:00PM Wednesday and down to 5000′ by Thursday mid-morning.
For the folks that are planning on coming up to the Sierra the following weekend, it looks very breezy over the top with temperatures at 10,000 feet in the 30s. Highs over the lower slopes and in town in the 40s. Expect lots of clouds, but dry. Expect packed powder conditions as well, So if you liked the snow this past weekend, the snow conditions will be twice as good next weekend.
PS there is a smaller feature showing up Friday night into early Saturday AM that may bring a few more inches of snow to the high country toward the end of this week.
THE ENSEMBLE SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPENING DEEP LAYERED TROF…THAT IS SEEN WELL BY THE WARMING WITHIN THE WAVE WEST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WEDGE BOTH WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE AS WELL AS WITH SOME OF THE SIGNIFICANT INTERNAL FEATURES. THE SHIFT NORTHWARD OF BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS FURTHER TIGHTENED THE AGREEMENT IN TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THE TROF AND WITH STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECENS MEAN AND 06Z GEFS…CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THERE IS STILL TIME FOR ADJUSTMENT OF SOME OF THE SMALL INTERNAL DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z UKMET/CMC ARE BOTH OUT OF PHASE TO NOT PREFER THEM IN THE BLEND AT THIS TIME.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)