Archive for March, 2016
Cold Upper Low over CA today will bring gusty winds and a band of light snow through Mono County later this afternoon into this Evening….Unsettled weather to continue through Wednesday then fair and warmer Thursday through the weekend….
Monday March 28, 2016
Posted at 9:14 am by Howard
SST are really cooling along the west coast south to Pt. Conception as EL Nino Fades…
This means that coastal sections from Northern Ca south to Southern CA will have much more of a June Gloom season over the next few years…..
Tuesday PM; Longer Range Update:
From the briefing from the Climatic Prediction Center late this AM…They liked the GFS version of the MJO Phase Space currently strengthening a bit in Phase 8 and 1. The MJO will add a bit of life to ENSO by constructively interfering to the ailing El Nino which is weakening rapidly now. The SOI is -14 so there is still suppressed convection over the Maritime Continent. Once the current MJO moves through….El Nino will probably crash. The CPC expects EL Nino to be, below the threshold by the end of May. So during this upcoming month of April is El Nino Last Gasp, in its ability to modulate the westerlies through the East Pac. It appears that we may have one more Eastern Extension of the EAJ during the latter part of week 2 and the 3rd week of April. This maybe our last chance for a significant storm or two this season from an inter-seasonal and climatic point of view. . The chance is for LA as well…..
A cold upper low is spinning up over Northern CA this AM and will slide SE through the Central Sierra later today bringing light snow and blustery cold weather. Highs today at 8000 ft will peak out in the upper 30s early then plummet down into the low 20s later this afternoon…. Being that the upper level system is developing over land, little moisture is associated with it and the moisture band will diminish as it moves south today….Southern Mono county is expecting 4 to 7 inches with highest amounts in the coldest air over the sierra crest.
The Long Wave Trof will continue over the far west through Tuesday, then become stretched out with a portion of it ejecting through the Mid West Wednesday night while the back portion of it hangs back over Southern CA into Thursday AM. This will give Mammoth a strong easterly flow aloft which will affect mainly the sierra crest Thursday AM with gusty easterly winds…. By Thursday night the remains of the upper trof is over the Desert SW and Northern MX, while the highly amplified ridge off shore builds bodily into CA. The result of this ridge will promote above normal temps for the upcoming weekend with highs in Mammoth in the low 60s and near 80 in Bishop for the first weekend of April.
Solar Cycle 24-25
Not much has been mentioned here at Mammothweather.com about Solar in a while. The Sun completed it solar cycle 24 peak with a double peak in early 2014. At the moment, the solar cycle is crashing toward a solar minimum. What is most interesting is that this solar minimum is theorized to coincide with back to back small cycles for a Grand Minimum. One that has not happened in “about” 200 years. The next solar cycle 25 is expected to be an even smaller cycle than the current cycle 24. Deep solar minimum’s are thought by some scientist’s to coincide with minor global cooling, and wetter weather in the west. One reason for this is the coincidence of increased seismic activity and volcanism. It is a known that with enough volcanic aerosols shot up into the stratosphere, and in the right geographical locations, global cooing can occur. (Opine) As a side note, this has nothing to do with Anthropological Global Warming other than to possibly pause it for a while.
After a lull…..Upper pattern to become active again with a Cold Spring Trof setting up over the Great Basin…
Thursday March 24, 2016
Posted at 6:46 pm by Howard
QPF 1 to 4 inches….by Wednesday….
Like the Headline?
Here are the points of interest:
- The Nino Basin is still in the moderate to strong El Nino Range. 16 MAR 2016 27.5 1.0 28.8 1.7 28.9 1.7 29.6 1.42
- The Climate models have been touting a wetter pattern for April for sometime. However, the devil is in the details and those have not been clear to me.
- This El Bazzar-Nino has been 180 degrees out of phase as far as where you would expect the isopleths for precipitation along the west coast to be. For Southern CA to be this Dry and the Pacific Northwest to be this wet is nothing short of weird.
- Is the real EL Nino forced pattern just beginning to take shape? Keep a weary eye out for the Southern Stream…..
Weather wise the next few days are pretty benign…. Breezy Friday over the upper elevations into Saturday AM….Highs in the 50s in town, lows in the 20s….
Beginning Sunday, retrogression and amplification of the long wave ridge occurs to 140W. The Sharpness of the ridge suggests, strong developing meridial flow. In our area geographically, that means that a cold Spring Trof will dig over the far west and set up over the Great Basin. This is the first change in the pattern. This is a cold snow showery pattern for Mammoth and potentially a wet pattern for Extreme Southern CA south, if the upper jet swings out off the coast and then back into Northern Baja. However, the precipitation is dynamically driven, not AR driven. Now…IF the upper jet somehow gets far enough west……That would improve chances for some heavy Southern CA rain showers and Thunder, later next week like Thursday.
On a synoptic scale, the upper ridge holds west longer in the EC than the GFS. There is some undercutting later of the Subtropical jet and some suggestion that southern stream energy would link up from the subtropical eastern pacific across Baja, Northern MX and Texas. Again….This is a wet pattern (Possibly for extreme Southern CA. Baja. MX, Northern, Mx and across the southwest and Texas. The AR is across Baja, Little if any makes it north into SC.
For Mammoth Mt, well have to see where the Upper Jet set up. It is possible that Mammoth could get some moderate amounts of snowfall (6 to 18 inches) Between Monday and Friday of next week. It will be showery and it will be cold!…. April Showers bring May Flowers….
More Later……..Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)
Mondays Storm dropped between 4 and 7 inches on Mammoth Mt with Blustery Weather expected for Tuesday/Ngt….Then fair and warmer Wednesday through Sunday……March goes out as Closed Low Season Begins in April…..
Tuesday March 22, 2016
Posted at 9:38 am by Howard
update this evening: 3/24/16
It was a nice little storm that rolled into Mammoth late Monday afternoon. Gusty winds and moderate snow showers were in full force by 6:30PM. The snow that was falling was definitely of the convective nature. The popcorn snow pellet type hydrometeor, common in the springtime! At Mammothweather.com near the Village at Mammoth, I picked up .36 hundreds and between 2 and 3 inches of Snow. I estimated that Mammoth Mt got between 4 and 7 inches of snow over night.
The upper trof axis has shifted into Western Nevada this morning with a strong upper jet NNW/SSE translating east today through midnight tonight. Thus the upper elevation’s will be very breezy to windy today and tonight as well as down through the Owens Valley. By Wednesday, the main upper jet is well east of the area but there still remains a NW flow aloft for continued breeze over the Sierra Crest.
The weather will become more congenial by Thursday and warmer as well with short wave ridging building in. Temperature’s today will be in the upper 30s then 40s Wednesday, and even 50s Thursday through Sunday. Lows at night will be in the low to mid 20s for the most part this week…especially by Thursday morning.
For you folks coming up for the Easter Holiday weekend, expect very nice weather Saturday, with breezes on the increase by Sunday afternoon. As the headline indicates, a change in the pattern will take place beginning Sunday night as retrogression of the long wave ridge redevelops back some 1400 miles west to 140W.. This will allow a cold trof to dig SSE from the Pacific Northwest into Eastern CA. At this time it is not certain of its exact trajectory but it will be all snow at resort levels. If it becomes a coaster slider, we could get significant snowfall early next week as it spins up into a closed upper low. If it digs, then spins up over California, then light to possibly moderate amounts of snow can be expected. And …if it digs south into Northern CA then shifts to the Great Basin north of Mono County, it will be mostly Wind, Cooling and snow showers…..
One thing is certain….After a nice Eastern California Easter Holiday weekend, it appears that it will get cold and unsettled for the first half of next week.
12:15 PM Tuesday Update:
Looking further at the 500MB mean height forecasts from both the ECMWF and GFSX:
- The upper height anomaly is a bit east of 140W and there is an area of weakness over the mid latitudes just east of the dateline. Both the EC and GFS are looking at a track down through Northern CA then possibly west to the South Central Coast by Tuesday. This may still be a good position for precip for the Central Sierra South to the Mts of LA next week as the upper jet is over water and the NE Quad of the closed low is over the Central and Southern Sierra. More later…………………..>>>
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)