East Asian Jet Extension well in the models now with Best Storm Cycle probabilities for the Winter of 2016….AR Event Saturday PM to supply plenty of juice for the Pump….
Thursday March 3, 2016
Posted at 10:02 pm by Howard
This will be brief with a more detailed update later today:
Looking at the all the guidance, and if it is correct….we are going into one protracted storm cycle that may rival the “Miracle March” of 1991….. over a 15 day period…..
More details later today….
The Dweebs have been on family leave with newly born twins to take care of…. Both Jakob and Charlie doing well…..Both boys just escaping the stigma of Leap Day by a just few hours!
When the Dweebs updated some 5 days ago, it was apparent that both the EC and the GFS had come into better agreement and that the MJO was strong enough to bring significant upper divergence well east of the dateline and get the EAJ extended to California. It was a tough one without early consensus. After all, the EC is the better model right! 😉
The Dweebs want to make some important points here that deserve mention:
- The “AR” that is forecasted to set up has a long fetch across the pacific. Additionally, it has a double structure that is notable.
- The PWAT that is forecasted for late Saturday afternoon by the GFS is +5 sigma which is some 5 deviations above normal. There appears to be about 1.5 inches in the column forecasted.
- This is a notable AR and although it is nothing like what hit mammoth in February of 1986 or JANUARY 1 1998, this AR will supply a rich source of moisture for the dynamics to lift when it comes in Saturday night in Sunday AM. The CRFC “QPF” is about 3 inches of water within 30 hours. This is a hammer we have not seen this winter. The snow level will be tricky as microphysical processes maybe come into play as strong UVM develops later Saturday night. This may be one of those rare 3 to 4 foot snowfalls over night in Mammoth, above 8K, depending on where the snow level sets up. The Dweebs will have time to fine tune this tomorrow Friday afternoon..
Looking at the big picture, there are a series of systems headed into the area beginning Friday. The freezing level Friday is 10K so precip will be rain in town. Then there is the Saturday late afternoon/Sunday system which is the biggy. Another system will move in Sunday and will end Monday evening. There is another 1.5 inches between Sunday afternoon and Monday night, so another 18 inches over Mammoth Mt is possible along with some 6 to 12 in town. That system Sunday will be all snow. All toll, between Friday and Monday Night…..5.5 inches over the crest, or about 5 feet of snow is possible. Will update on QPF again Friday PM
There looks to be a break Tuesday through about Thursday with another system Friday into the following weekend. That system may split some….well have to see. Then another AR is hinted by the GFS about the 13th. The 10 day QPF from the EC is 7 inches or about 6 feet of snow over the crest. The GFS, 12 inches of water or about 10 feet. Take your pick…..Or better yet how about an average…..
The Dweeb forecast of 100 inches of snow over the pass at 10:1 is about 10 inches of QPF. Its possible….we’ll see. The Dweebs did say in the 2nd to 3 weeks of March, although the models are trending to split the upper jet south with southern stream energy heading south of us after week 2.