Well Connected Atmospheric River stretches back to Asia as first major upper low moves in later today…..Winter Storm Warning hoisted for tonight through 10:00AM Monday Morning……2-1/2 feet possible for the town of Mammoth by Monday PM and 4 feet + Mammoth Mtn by Monday PM…….Storm Door to remain open in the 6 to 10 day period with a good storm every 3 to 4 days…….
Saturday March 5, 2016
Posted at 10:10 am by Howard
It’s almost ShowTime as an area of strong (UVM) “Upward Vertical Motion” moves in by 10:00PM tonight. The FOUS data for Fresno shows UVM increasing to a +28 by 10:00PM tonight packing the dendritic growth zone with more then it can handle. 500MB- 1000mb thicknesses fall from 554 DM to 542DM within 6 hours as the cold front comes through Sunday AM. By 4:00AM Sunday, the UVM diminishes to +12 so UVM still going strong! By 18Z Sunday (10:00AM) the UVM is down to +1.5, and 500MB Thicknesses drop to 535DM as the heavy snow turns to showers for Sunday afternoon. Note: a 500mb – 1000 mb thickness of 534 is a snow level of 3000 to 4000 feet.
Then UVM increases again by 10:00PM Sunday night, to +5.6 with a Thickness of 540DN. That means all snow for the entire Mono Country!! UVM increases up to a whopping +36 by 4:00AM Monday AM as the next cold front get ready to come through. By 10:00AM Monday, improving weather is expected with snow showers. The Winter Storm Warning is lifted at 10:00AM. Expect a break Tuesday through Mid day Thursday…..The next in the series of storms move in about Thursday Evening….
It is notable that the new GFS 12z deterministic Run for Saturday AM shows the updated 10 day QPF at 16 inches of water over the west side in the San Joaquin drainage….
Storm total for the Town of Mammoth is about 2.5+ feet and 4+feet for Mammoth Mt by Monday PM. Most of this will fall late tonight through Mid morning Sunday and again Sunday night into mid- morning Monday. The snowfall will be powdery Sunday night and Monday AM. Snow to water ratios will increase to 12 or 13:1 by Monday AM
Regarding Mondays storm…..
This storm may end up being a major problem for folks in Mexico as it digs sound over/or just off the coast of Baja, MX coast line. The GFS this morning brings thicknesses down into the 540s over the tropical waters of the Sea of Cortez and 550s DM south to near Puerto Vallarta, MX. The Sierra Nevada’s of MX, east of there stands a chance to get heavy snowfall which may become live threatening for any of the indigenous people that are un-prepared this upcoming Tuesday. The storm is showing up at some +5 deviations of normal for that area, this time of the year.