A Fair Weather Upper Ridge develops by Mid Week….Expect an end to the Windy Weather for a 5 day period….Upper Jet Makes a return to Northern CA by Sunday Night……The forecast for Mammoth includes a dry period beginning Tuesday through the end of this week….
Monday March 14, 2016
Posted at 9:01 am by Howard
As the East Asian Jet retreats….strong height rises continue to be expected this week for California, as the upper jet lifts north into Canada by Mid-Week. Upper level winds will be very light by Wednesday and subsidence will warm daytime highs over Mammoth to near 60 by Saturday. By Sunday, the pattern becomes a bit progressive again and the upper jet makes a return to the NW coast for more upper level wind next Sunday PM into the following Monday a full week away. Looking at the week 2 progs, the next weather system arrives next Sunday night into the following Monday. That system is targeted mainly to the north of us. However, we may get some showers. The main message this morning according to the 500mb ensembles from both the ECMWF and the GFS is that a fair weather ridge will remain over the central west coast more often than not……Well into the end of March. However with that said, the deterministic 06z run of the GFS was much more encouraging for more precip with a specific storm the last week of March.
From a Climo point of view, we are getting into that time of the year where the models become more fickle and are not as reliable during the week 2 time frame….
By the end of March and beginning of April, the upper jet is in a weakening process as the days are longer and polar nights much shorter…..
”Dr Howard and the Dweebs”…………………….:-)