Upper ridge building and upper jet headed further north….Dry weather expected through Sunday…..Chance of a moderate storm Monday…..
Tuesday March 15, 2016
Posted at 1:45 pm by Howard
Upper level winds continue to diminish as the upper jet now over Oregon, lifts north into Canada by Friday. Although a short wave Trof may bring some high clouds later today and a slight increase of wind over the Crest….The upper jet will be too far to the north by Wednesday and Thursday for any significant wind. Strong subsidence will develop Later Thursday into Friday for strong warming for the last few days of Winter. I expect low 60s by Friday and low to possibly mid 60s by Saturday. Bishop will hit low 80s for the first time over the weekend. Night time lows in Mammoth will still remain below freezing….
ENSO: El Nino Southern Oscillation
I just had a peak at the SOI and the daily contribution today was +17.47. The reason? The convective Envelope of the MJO is over the Maritime Continent north of Australia. This is likely to aid in a more rapid cooling of the El NINO basin by strong upwelling due to the enhanced trades. A more rapid demise of El Nino may be reflected in the NINO numbers in the coming weeks. SEE: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/index.php “Destructive Interference” is also in play with MJO and ENSO.
Looking at the MJO Phase space, it is evident that the MJO will be translating through Phases, 4, 5, 6 and 7 over the next 2 weeks. There is a window within the next week or so for a storm to get in here. The global models have one next Monday. However, once the MJO gets into phase 6, 7 and early 8, it is ridge city through the end of the month and possibly into early April. SEE: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
If the MJO is strong enough in late phase 8, we may see one more run of undercutting of the westerlies with the extended EAJ. But later in April, the MJO weakens significantly climatically.
As an interseasonal outlook using the MJO, we have one more storm this month next week, before we ridge up during the first week of Spring into early April.