After a lull…..Upper pattern to become active again with a Cold Spring Trof setting up over the Great Basin…
Thursday March 24, 2016
Posted at 6:46 pm by Howard
QPF 1 to 4 inches….by Wednesday….
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Here are the points of interest:
- The Nino Basin is still in the moderate to strong El Nino Range. 16 MAR 2016 27.5 1.0 28.8 1.7 28.9 1.7 29.6 1.42
- The Climate models have been touting a wetter pattern for April for sometime. However, the devil is in the details and those have not been clear to me.
- This El Bazzar-Nino has been 180 degrees out of phase as far as where you would expect the isopleths for precipitation along the west coast to be. For Southern CA to be this Dry and the Pacific Northwest to be this wet is nothing short of weird.
- Is the real EL Nino forced pattern just beginning to take shape? Keep a weary eye out for the Southern Stream…..
Weather wise the next few days are pretty benign…. Breezy Friday over the upper elevations into Saturday AM….Highs in the 50s in town, lows in the 20s….
Beginning Sunday, retrogression and amplification of the long wave ridge occurs to 140W. The Sharpness of the ridge suggests, strong developing meridial flow. In our area geographically, that means that a cold Spring Trof will dig over the far west and set up over the Great Basin. This is the first change in the pattern. This is a cold snow showery pattern for Mammoth and potentially a wet pattern for Extreme Southern CA south, if the upper jet swings out off the coast and then back into Northern Baja. However, the precipitation is dynamically driven, not AR driven. Now…IF the upper jet somehow gets far enough west……That would improve chances for some heavy Southern CA rain showers and Thunder, later next week like Thursday.
On a synoptic scale, the upper ridge holds west longer in the EC than the GFS. There is some undercutting later of the Subtropical jet and some suggestion that southern stream energy would link up from the subtropical eastern pacific across Baja, Northern MX and Texas. Again….This is a wet pattern (Possibly for extreme Southern CA. Baja. MX, Northern, Mx and across the southwest and Texas. The AR is across Baja, Little if any makes it north into SC.
For Mammoth Mt, well have to see where the Upper Jet set up. It is possible that Mammoth could get some moderate amounts of snowfall (6 to 18 inches) Between Monday and Friday of next week. It will be showery and it will be cold!…. April Showers bring May Flowers….
More Later……..Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)