Weather pattern will return to an active one for Mid Spring…with Wind….Rain/Snow and cooler weather……This pattern will likely continue into month’s end…..
Thursday April 21, 2016
Posted at 10:08 am by Howard
Today Madness is all about the upper low that may dig back into So-Cal for the weekend…..
The Dweebs need another day or even two to call it. An upper level low that digs back into Southern Ca would bring light snow to the high country and gusty NE winds over the weekend. But the Jury is still out on this one….
Monday AM Update:
Snow showers are expected today Monday with no measurable accumulation…. A short wave ridge will bring fair and warmer temps Tuesday…. Highs are expected in the upper 30s Monday and near 50 on Tuesday. Lows in the 20s
West Coast Adjustment wave axis in the mean is shifting slowly east over time. That means that although we may get a NW slider Wednesday and Thursday with periods and winds and snow/showers, the next system late in the weekend will drop south over the Great Basin. We can still get a few snow showers from that. However, most likely it looks like just some upslope cloudiness and wind Sunday and Monday.
In the meantime, the system and its impulses Wednesday and Thursday might bring some 4 to 7 inches over the upper elevations with 1 to 3 inches at the Village at Mammoth.
At the moment the fishing opener look fair for the Sunrise Event Saturday AM with light breezes. However, an inside slider Sunday will bring clouds and between light and moderate winds for the north through Long Valley.
In the longest range, there is the chance of a larger scale closed low effecting Southern and Central CA over the Mothers Day Weekend……………..
I will have a more detailed outlook on the fishing opener Wednesday Afternoon.
Dr. Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)
A more active pattern is being advertised by both Global Ensembles today in the short, medium and longer range. It is likely to begin this Friday as a vigorous cold front sweeps through the sierra Friday Night bringing mainly light to possibly moderate snowfall amounts above 9,000 feet. Another small system may bring snow showers Sunday night into early Monday and yet another system about next Wednesday followed by possibly another the following weekend.
Latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is now better handled by the two global models, the GFS and ECMWF. Looking at the Wednesday 12Z ECMWF and the 18Z GFS for the Sierra Crest near Mammoth Mt, it appears that “about” .4 to .7 inches of water EQ is reasonable as they both show pretty close to the same amount. Based on the above and about 10:1 ratio of snow to water at 10,000 feet….. Expect somewhere between 3 and 5 inches at the main lodge and 6 to 8 inches on the crest by Saturday mid-morning….
The snow level will begin about 9,000 and then lower to between the 6500 to 7000 foot level by late Friday night. A few inches of snowfall is possible off the roadways near the Village at Mammoth. Temperatures in the Town of Mammoth will cool from today’s mid 60s to the upper forties over the weekend in town. Moderate winds will come up out of the south over the crest Thursday afternoon then become stronger out of the west Friday and Friday night. Winds will be moderate again Saturday and diminish into the evening with lighter winds Sunday AM. Moderate winds will return Sunday PM into Monday over the crest.
Main Central Pacific Adjustment wave is located over the Aleutians with a secondary wave over California into the end of the month. The weakness in the mean may shift into the Western Great Basin over time. This will allow for small spring storms on and off for a week to ten days.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)