Archive for April, 2016

Sunday Afternoon’s Analysis over CA showed weak cyclonic circulation over the interior of Southern CA with scattered mainly light shower action……Over developed conditions of extensive cloudiness over Southern Mono County leads to the unlikelihood of significant precip today unless we get some surface heating….

The main action this afternoon is confined to the more dynamic area of Arizona, that is just north of the upper jet crossing Baja along with the weakening cyclonic flow over interior Southern CA. There is strong upper divergence in that area. We are definitely into hybrid forecasting today with both dynamic forcing type conditions to the Southeast and strong daytime heating with increasing surface CAPE taking off over Northern CA.  There is likely to be a lot of thunderstorms over those two areas this afternoon. Here in Southern Mono County outside of a few showers it does not look all that exciting for the rest of the day. No Deformation and no surface heating. About the only thing worth mentioning is that the Lifted’s are near 0 here and there is a small 850 convergence /250 divergence couplet showing up in the SPC over Northern Inyo County. So if the sun happens to come out long enough, we might get a shower or thunderstorm. There is certainly enough afternoon left for that…

Longer Range:

The week ahead still looks cool and unsettled through Thursday with a rather windy short wave rolling in Wednesday afternoon with the upper jet translating east Thursday morning. The closed low idea from last week is off the table.  It is expected to bring light amounts of snowfall. Possibly a few inches in town and 3 to 5 inches over the top of old woolly.   Now for the big news…..The idea of a series of storms moving through California for the next few weeks is off the table now. We are in that time of the year when the longer range guidance is not worth the 1’s and 0s that pop into the programs that produce week two and inter-seasonally Week 3 forecasts. This is not to say that we are done for the year. However, we go into a weak split flow pattern with precipitation driven more by weak closed lows rather than transitory short wave that bring actual fronts to our area. Deformation, surface convergence/upper divergence couplets and CAPE will play a more important role in forecasting in the weeks ahead.

The following weekend looks fair at this time and warmer…

 

ENSO:   You have to look at this!!!  Could this be a whopper of a La Nina?

Check out the links below.

First look at CFSVS2 SST forecast for the Nino 3.4 region from the initial conditions between March 11th to the 20th:   http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd1/nino34Mon.gif

Then compare it to the latest forecast from the initial conditions March 31st to the 9th of April: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

Good Golly Miss Molly!  What happened!!!

Now Check out Scripps’ ENSO Forecast for next Winter!:  http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/pictures.html

WOW!!!!

 

Moisture Surge from the south in process but little in the way of lift over Eastern CA today…..Instability should increase with time later today and tonight….

Radar is showing light returns over Southern Inyo Country late this AM, but little instability is over the eastern central CA ATM.   Latest guidance at 250MB on the 12z NGM and GFS has good upper divergence over the central sierra late today and tonight. CAPE is expected to increase over the crest this afternoon to 250 J/KG. So well see if we get any  showers today.

Climatology:

We are moving toward mid April now, and weather systems are being influenced more and more by daytime heating. A more hybrid situation exists with both Dynamic lift and Convection generated by surface heating.  By the time we get to Mid April, the angle of the sun in the sky is like late August. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) becomes an important parameter in the lifting process for precipitation.

 

Strong Upper Height Blocking over the Pacific NW and Western Canada will force undercutting of the westerlies the next few weeks…..Bringing good Central and Southern Sierra Snows and colder than normal temps to the high country….

The Dweebs this morning like the way the pattern is shaping up the next few weeks with good potential of beneficial rains and snow in the high country for the southern 2/3rds of the state.  Medium Range forecasts and long-range outlooks show a strong for Mid April, belt of Westerlies carrying a series of closed lows through Southern and Central CA. Although in the short-term the snow level will be high…deeper systems will bring colder storms next week.  The global model spreads of the 10 day QPF’s are pretty large at the moment. The European showing about 3 inches of water for the San Joaquin drainage while the GFS has a whopping 6.5 inches.  Odds are it will end up somewhere in the middle by mid-month with storminess possibility persisting through the end of the 3rd week of April……Leading to an “Awesome April”….

 

More Later….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)