Archive for May, 2016

Record or near record high temperatures on tap later this week as strong ridge for early June builds into the west coast…..Heat will break with thundershowers Sunday and Monday…..

Sunday AM Update:

A weak upper low was located just NE of the Bay Area at Sunrise Sunday, proged to move ENE today. This is north of its earlier forecasted position. All of the Upper Divergence will be north of Mammoth Lakes today and so little in the way of dynamic forcing for thunderstorm’s is expected south of Mono Lake. The forecast is calling for isolated thunderstorms today for the southern Mono County Area and again Monday and Tuesday, Highs in the 70s today with lows in the upper 40s.  Saturday’s high was 80 at the Village at Mammoth and 82 in town.  It was 102 in Bishop Saturday breaking the old record by 2 degrees set back in 1996.

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The first real taste of Summer will take place this week with highs in the mid 70s mid-week, climbing to the low 80s by Saturday. In the meantime the heat will build due to a strong ridge of high pressure and 500/1000MB thickness gradually climbing to about 580DM by 00z Sunday over Mammoth and Bishop.

The outlook shows a small upper level low that will work its way into the Central Sierra Sunday into early the following week.  The system will first create diffluence aloft with the possibility of a deformation zone setting up over Mono County. There is the possibility of upper divergence if the NE quad favors Mammoth Lakes Sunday. Although,  there will be little moisture associated with the upper low itself, the cooling aloft combined with the antecedent record warmth will be enough to light up the atmospheric with thunderstorms Sunday and especially Monday. Most models show that the late weekend system will be followed by yet a small progressive Trof the following Wednesday. The Prind. point is that the following week is likely to be cooler and breezy into the following weekend of the 11th. There maybe some days with below normal temps later the following week.

There is also MJO support for the cooler following week….More later……………..:-)

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)

The Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms return Saturday through Sunday with less of a chance on Memorial Day….A taste of Summer definitely in forecast by Tuesday though Friday next week…

Saturday 2:00PM

Weak deformation zone has set up over Mono County showing up on the 850MB. Light showers and some thunder so far in Mammoth with the snow level above 10K.

Showers will trend further north with time……

 

Looking at the 00Z Saturday WRF…..the upper flow at the moment is light from the NW. A weak wave is forecasted to come through early Saturday AM. This will spin up a small upper low off the South Central CA coast Saturday with the upper center over Southern CA Sunday. The Dweebs did not see any specific areas of Deformation. However, worth noting is a pocket of strong upper divergence developing at 250MB over Mono County. Additionally, there is a strong corresponding area of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) of between 750 and 1000 J/KG progged for Mono County Saturday afternoon into the evening. Thus…..Showers and Thunderstorms will likely form here and there…..especially if an area of deformation sets up during the afternoon. Weather conditions are similar Sunday….

 

Highs Saturday  63  …Sunday  65  Monday 69  Lows in the 30s….

 

The outlook for next week shows an upper ridge building in with above normal temps resulting. We may see low 70s by Tuesday then through Friday……Enjoy!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

Chilly Weekend to be followed by the potential of some significant snowfall Tuesday PM Through Wednesday AM……Cold Mid May adjustment wave over the far west is pretty much stationary through much of next week….The Dweebs will keep a weary eye on the Memorial Day holiday weekend……

Monday AM:

A Broad Trof remains over the far west this week with the upper jet west-east across Paso Robles to DV. Thus Mammoth remains on the cyclonic side of the upper jet. Several impulses will move through the broad upper trof the next few days allowing Rain showers and snow showers to occur. Some showers may be moderate with the potential for hail and accumulating snow mainly at elevations about 9K. A combination of deformation over Mono County, Upper Divergence/afternoon CAPE, will make for a potentially active late afternoon today…… This unsettled pattern is likely to continue off and on through this week.  The TOML may pick up an inch or 2  of snow over the next few days…At elevations above 8K

The Holiday Weekend is looking less active at this time with cooler than normal temps and isolated showers. High temps near 60 each day over the holiday weekend…lows in the low 30s. The Dweebs are still in the camp for the possibility of 3 to 6 inches of snow above 9000 this week…..Mainly Tuesday through Thursday AM…

Saturday Evening: 8:55PM

Like yesterday, temperatures ended up 20 degrees below normal for Mammoth with todays high of 45 similar to yesterdays 44. There was over 12 hours of below freezing temperatures last night, with lows in the upper 20s. The duration of the below freezing temps qualified for a hard freeze last night and this morning.  With the freezing level rising Sunday, temps will rise with highs near 50 at the Village. Most of the precipitation over CA has been under the cold pool over Northern CA. The short wave coming in this evening has little moisture with it. Nevertheless we might get a dusting or so over the upper elevations.  The long wave or west coast adjustment wave will remain in place over the California next week.  Individual shots of energy “are not storms” but impulses/Vort maxes that will travel down the coast then inland over the southern half of CA, during the first half of this up coming week.  This is all part of the same system that is bringing much colder than normal temps to our region, snow flurries in town and snow showers on Mammoth Mt.

The latest guidance from CRFC at 21Z today had the QPF of up to nearly 2/3rd of an inch beginning Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday AM over the west side of the sierra crest.  This particular strong vort max spins up to a closed center  “off the coast” all with in the same upper western trof.   The forecast for .63 looks good for 3 to 6 inches of snow at and above 9,000, mainly late Tuesday afternoon and throughout the night Wednesday.  The Dweebs will update on this short wave Monday to see how it is coming along…and will adjust for any change in amounts if necessary…….

Stay Tuned>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The Dweeber…………………………….:-)